Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Duke Blue Devils vs. Stanford Cardinal: O/U 147.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbbedd085cb171abfa7db26c659a9c714bc58b17aa79e6871eb9b76a9a28ee38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 49c | 6,433$3,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,285.63 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 5,450$2,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,764.8 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 52c | 583$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.13 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 52c | 383.33$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 49c | 304$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.2 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 295.28$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.78 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 53c | 245.28$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…bc84backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…4b98backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Under | 52c | 46.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Stanford Cardinal: O/U 147.5this page
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Stanford CardinalDuke Blue Devils won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Stanford Cardinal: O/U 145.5Under won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Stanford Cardinal: O/U 146.5Under won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-10.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5)Duke Blue Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.