TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rocketsof Rockets, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,885,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,024,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,885,621 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,975 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Magic43c742,107$321,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,728.0287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Magic1c326,522$3,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,012.041,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Rockets56c258,928$144,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113,928.1443542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e69…858dbacked Rockets57c150,000$85,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,099.941942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a57…2afabacked Rockets57c141,000$79,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,129.958944.9%40 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Rockets57c125,000$70,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,208.5123257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Rockets57c123,742$70,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,354.8951354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic46c120,401$54,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,827.312,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Magic0c55,334$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Magic39c54,000$20,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,88037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets57c51,431$29,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,125.044,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Magic0c48,772$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.771,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic53c47,810$25,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,529.541,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4f5…1079backed Magic60c45,756$27,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,411.65048%24 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Rockets54c43,267$23,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,111.962,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Rockets56c43,163$24,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,891.5534456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Rockets57c40,000$22,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,20019645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic44c34,204$14,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,925.611,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0441…b3aabacked Magic43c30,300$13,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,029.018441.7%35 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f04…73d5backed Rockets57c30,299$17,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,028.635444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Rockets57c29,643$16,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,746.71,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Magic42c29,560$12,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,415.5732540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Rockets57c29,153$16,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,535.791,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets56c29,126$16,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,760.564,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b9…6d18backed Rockets57c29,000$16,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,353.34875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Rockets57c28,940$16,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,444.3748343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Magic43c26,398$11,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,421.0220947.8%100 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Magic0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Magic7c23,223$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584.771,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Magic71c21,969$15,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,692.1983039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic50c20,374$10,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,247.285,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b93…c83bbacked Rockets57c20,272$11,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,717.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Magic44c20,000$8,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,799.991,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Magic43c19,848$8,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,534.8345850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Magic44c18,523$8,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,1507240.3%29 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets28c18,467$5,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,381.624,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd350…2583backed Magic43c15,861$6,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,820.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Magic43c15,840$6,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,811.228649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Magic0c15,555$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5623630.1%71 W · 165 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc554…00adbacked Magic45c15,315$6,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,823.645038%19 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Magic57c13,514$7,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,733.941,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Magic1c12,897$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3914533.1%48 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Rockets57c12,300$7,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2891,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d90…1310backed Rockets78c11,784$9,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.0515274.3%113 W · 39 L+22.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Rockets30c11,667$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,166.679250%46 W · 46 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Magic42c11,401$4,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,788.4335450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Magic43c11,000$4,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,689.9443348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic59c10,793$6,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,330.973,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Magic44c10,350$4,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,597.3741832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Magic44c10,235$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5009531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Magic0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdab4…a27abacked Rockets57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3008944.9%40 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Magic44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40018747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Magic63c9,809$6,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,179.6437557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Rockets41c9,752$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,802.4342348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf52b…905bbacked Rockets57c9,649$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,149.121145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Rockets52c9,600$4,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,60811737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Magic1c9,311$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.823179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Rockets56c9,074$5,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,032.0381529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Rockets43c8,714$3,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,978.313,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Magic43c8,605$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,700.3217554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Rockets59c8,571$5,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,514.2935942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Rockets40c8,000$3,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,79012251.6%63 W · 59 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Rockets48c7,981$3,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,160.433,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Magic42c7,910$3,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,324.231,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Rockets57c7,725$4,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,321.752,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Rockets59c7,145$4,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,919.6219136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60d6…d1e3backed Magic50c7,122$3,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,558.9719949.7%99 W · 100 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Rockets57c7,088$4,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,047.7117356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Magic43c7,032$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.981,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Rockets57c6,996$3,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,008.2444352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Rockets56c6,875$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,024.8619958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e41…a1c1backed Magic44c6,818$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0006848.5%33 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1716…d2b5backed Rockets57c6,789$3,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,919.151384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.32per pick53cpaid+60.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Magic0c6,762$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.192,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c75…b299backed Rockets57c6,719$3,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,889.34438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Rockets57c6,234$3,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,697.5886641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Magic56c5,788$3,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,220.035,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Rockets48c5,695$2,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.289444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Magic44c5,555$2,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,444.211436.8%42 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Magic43c5,537$2,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,380.9158449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Magic37c5,443$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.7140243.8%176 W · 226 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Magic44c5,227$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30041954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e5…c23ebacked Rockets57c5,200$2,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2361241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4219…7855backed Rockets59c5,198$3,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.074259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Magic43c5,194$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,233.4231644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x646e…3b1dbacked Magic44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2006023.3%14 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-46.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xceb5…3fbfbacked Magic43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1506445.3%29 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…0d81backed Magic43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1501643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0758…1351backed Magic43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1501163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Magic43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Magic43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.9918547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e8…bd44backed Rockets57c4,800$2,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0641376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+50.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Rockets33c4,747$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,158.5861939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Magic43c4,744$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.9465750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Magic41c4,709$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.6726444.7%118 W · 146 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbad3…6ec4backed Rockets52c4,700$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0457…51c8backed Magic48c4,690$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3795…9548backed Magic48c4,690$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.