NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81cb6650829d8fba81aba23869c703be6028db20d0a9dc7a3a0060a7dde4a73f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Rockets, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Magic | 49c | 1,566$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.55 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc736…e547backed Rockets | 51c | 1,406$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 54c | 1,222$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.39 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Rockets | 46c | 961.54$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b8…1762backed Rockets | 44c | 213.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6528…2dcebacked Rockets | 72c | 137.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Magic | 40c | 93.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Rockets | 21c | 76.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Rockets | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Rockets | 58c | 56.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Magic | 42c | 51.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 410 | 38%156 W · 254 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…6bf3backed Rockets | 55c | 38.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…5d14backed Rockets | 39c | 30.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Magic: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Rockets vs. MagicRockets won
- Rockets vs. Magic: O/U 215.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Magic: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.