NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf123db4ebac2f60a4ae01894730d7aba28cdf329f18fbcda430e19e6add455c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets | 47c | 5,803$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,059.22 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Magic | 53c | 5,548$2,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940.63 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic | 54c | 1,234$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.94 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Rockets | 46c | 1,063$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.91 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Rockets | 47c | 932.34$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.14 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rockets | 46c | 706.82$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.68 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Magic | 54c | 668.58$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.03 | 331 | 46.2%153 W · 178 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Rockets | 47c | 644.99$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.45 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Rockets | 45c | 613.51$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.8 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Rockets | 45c | 584.09$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.7 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic | 54c | 571$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.34 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Magic | 56c | 537.49$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Rockets | 47c | 523.46$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.83 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…1aa9backed Rockets | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Magic | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Magic | 54c | 486$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.44 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Magic | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Magic | 51c | 390.65$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.23 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 35c | 312.35$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.9 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Magic | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Magic | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Magic | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Magic | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Magic | 53c | 110.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rockets | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Magic | 58c | 99.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rockets | 47c | 98.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…8809backed Magic | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Magic | 53c | 95.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…5159backed Magic | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 46c | 87.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Rockets | 46c | 76.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Rockets | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557d…4ffebacked Rockets | 47c | 64.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Magic | 51c | 58.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Rockets | 46c | 58.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Rockets | 45c | 55.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Rockets | 45c | 55.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Magic | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rockets | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Magic | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Rockets | 47c | 44.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…215cbacked Magic | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Magic | 63c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Magic | 63c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6c…8ca8backed Magic | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…3f90backed Magic | 54c | 31.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rockets | 46c | 28.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Magic | 51c | 22.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Magic | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 215 | 53.5%115 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Magic | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…9b60backed Magic | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)this page
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Rockets vs. MagicRockets won
- Rockets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Rockets vs. Magic: O/U 215.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Magic: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.