NBA · resolved market
Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96d243eb7cf820ba56d377524ebe412c0be3b95d2287de74b1eef2dd52cb948e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 48c | 439.37$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.4 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 43c | 167.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…f8a0backed Yes | 51c | 147.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…7508backed Yes | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe751…6010backed Yes | 51c | 90.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked No | 55c | 79.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 50c | 40.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…2394backed Yes | 57c | 35.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 48c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 326 | 54.3%177 W · 149 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 46c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 44c | 26.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Yes | 54c | 21.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5this page
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Rockets vs. MagicRockets won
- Rockets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Rockets vs. Magic: O/U 215.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Magic: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.