NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dae08018374cc13625d1353c894f0a89b6c77642905db364a5a9dda773d5135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Rockets | 55c | 5,974$3,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,707.41 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets | 54c | 5,123$2,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,368.76 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Magic | 46c | 4,021$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.82 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 47c | 2,534$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.55 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…1aa9backed Rockets | 55c | 1,730$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.5 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Rockets | 53c | 1,698$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.11 | 348 | 54%188 W · 160 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Rockets | 56c | 1,388$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.5 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839d…592cbacked Rockets | 55c | 879.49$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.77 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 50cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Magic | 63c | 864.05$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.27 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 44c | 810.42$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.52 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic | 45c | 649.53$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.41 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Magic | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 53c | 622.86$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Magic | 47c | 612$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.64 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 55c | 575.78$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Rockets | 55c | 409.09$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.09 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 45c | 358.08$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.14 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…bb2abacked Rockets | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Rockets | 48c | 281.44$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.46 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Magic | 52c | 255.46$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.84 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Rockets | 55c | 229$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Rockets | 55c | 210.6$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic | 43c | 191.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…2b16backed Rockets | 55c | 188.58$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Rockets | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Rockets | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…b3acbacked Rockets | 16c | 154$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…2ac4backed Magic | 47c | 150.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Magic | 45c | 132.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Magic | 44c | 122$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Magic | 24c | 118.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Rockets | 46c | 113.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rockets | 53c | 108.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rockets | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Rockets | 54c | 86.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Magic | 45c | 83.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rockets | 50c | 82.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Magic | 47c | 77.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 383 | 50.4%193 W · 190 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee2…e71dbacked Rockets | 55c | 76.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 53c | 74.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Magic | 49c | 69.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Rockets | 53c | 66.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fad…374cbacked Magic | 47c | 61.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd766…5eb1backed Magic | 47c | 61.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…41c4backed Magic | 45c | 48.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…1618backed Magic | 45c | 48.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Rockets | 55c | 47.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Rockets | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3227…5df7backed Magic | 45c | 46.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…7ca8backed Magic | 45c | 45.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Magic | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Rockets | 60c | 38.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Rockets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Rockets | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Magic | 46c | 31.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Magic | 46c | 27.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Rockets | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Magic | 47c | 26.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 251 | 44.2%111 W · 140 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Magic | 67c | 26.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Rockets | 46c | 24.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Magic | 46c | 23.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -17.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Magic | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 360 | 45%162 W · 198 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)this page
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Rockets vs. MagicRockets won
- Rockets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Rockets vs. Magic: O/U 215.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Magic: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.