TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Bucks, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,913,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,172,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,913,167 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1af1…0f7bbacked Hawks31c640,972$199,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199,793.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bucks77c339,935$262,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,296.411,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Bucks46c163,043$75,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,043.1721057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Bucks46c102,522$47,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,361.9422458.9%132 W · 92 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Hawks54c100,000$54,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,0004037.5%15 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Bucks46c64,154$29,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,401.8251844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Hawks42c51,563$21,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,897.1129245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed Bucks46c48,698$22,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,296.8322051.8%114 W · 106 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca1…dd13backed Bucks49c46,000$22,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,4201233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f8…d904backed Hawks0c45,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Bucks46c43,016$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,015.7376746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Hawks24c38,439$9,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,358.771,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bucks47c28,958$13,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,353.712,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks54c27,146$14,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,683.234,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe56d…2b65backed Hawks55c27,116$14,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,9317552%39 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hawks7c25,872$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.641,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Bucks45c24,800$11,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,639.9919653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Hawks54c23,583$12,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,6648662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks52c23,288$12,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,109.832,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks54c22,328$12,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,121.976,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Bucks68c22,321$15,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,109.4714751%75 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Hawks54c21,979$11,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,859.4735235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Bucks49c20,984$10,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,732.214243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Hawks51c20,978$10,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,688.5415247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks78c19,850$15,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,312.245,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Bucks56c18,771$10,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,212.759938.4%38 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Bucks70c16,818$11,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,988.4127865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks71c12,601$9,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,593.274,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Bucks49c12,245$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,244.929347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Hawks54c11,111$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00022458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa028…4659backed Hawks55c11,000$6,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,050520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee2…3825backed Hawks55c10,389$5,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,714.11450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks46c10,366$4,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,580.319,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bucks46c10,357$4,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,551.831,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Bucks45c10,262$4,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,643.926540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b61…0fabbacked Hawks55c10,133$5,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,526.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Hawks24c10,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Hawks5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50027917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e9…d44dbacked Hawks54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,400540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Hawks55c9,974$5,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,461.9262347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb29a…7199backed Hawks53c9,473$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc4…628dbacked Bucks45c9,407$4,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,173.86633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Hawks29c9,294$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65040041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Hawks53c9,162$4,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,85610746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0e5…3ebcbacked Hawks55c9,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,950540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef8c…da27backed Hawks55c9,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,950520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Hawks11c8,880$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.9581529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bucks46c8,137$3,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,394.1159347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Bucks48c8,068$3,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,195.3635747.1%168 W · 189 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Hawks55c8,027$4,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,379.4640350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hawks34c7,868$2,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.058,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed Hawks54c7,843$4,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,235.224334.9%15 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks78c7,593$5,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,637.183,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks49c7,337$3,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,609.713,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ebf…e50fbacked Hawks55c7,284$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.2765144.5%290 W · 361 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Hawks54c7,000$3,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,77037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Hawks54c7,000$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,78038251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47b…5625backed Hawks54c6,799$3,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,671.63520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-57.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Bucks48c6,680$3,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,473.6852460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xccdb…ffa9backed Bucks45c6,667$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,666.673884.2%32 W · 6 L+10.8wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+59.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Hawks54c6,571$3,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,548.498846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd098…8c03backed Hawks54c6,459$3,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,488.052070%14 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x066f…4553backed Hawks22c6,437$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Hawks25c6,297$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.6561939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Bucks49c6,122$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.4524549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Hawks55c6,005$3,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30327163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Bucks46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,24016641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a79…a442backed Bucks74c5,969$4,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.547062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks47c5,839$2,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,069.391,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Hawks54c5,811$3,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,163.330947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Bucks45c5,750$2,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,162.52343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Hawks49c5,560$2,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,724.3959646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x632a…ac85backed Bucks46c5,556$2,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0006750.7%34 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Bucks71c5,365$3,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.1824752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bucks47c5,319$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,818.722,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Hawks54c5,226$2,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,822.0435450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Hawks2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ce8…d50dbacked Hawks55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+68%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Bucks45c5,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,759.961,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks55c4,981$2,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.882,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Bucks48c4,956$2,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,577.2511049.1%54 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Hawks44c4,725$2,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07346632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Hawks55c4,693$2,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,558.8348944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb410…e482backed Hawks54c4,680$2,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,527.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Hawks54c4,467$2,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,412.1271547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Bucks65c4,399$2,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.0585344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Hawks13c4,360$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.853520%7 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x166a…e675backed Hawks50c4,289$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,144.442839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Hawks14c4,286$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.9339744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks49c4,196$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,071.873,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ab…b6ffbacked Hawks55c4,188$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,303.598555.3%47 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Hawks48c4,169$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d26…1c15backed Hawks56c4,141$2,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,318.722459.4%133 W · 91 L-0.6wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x291b…2667backed Hawks55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2001330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.24per pick55cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Hawks32c4,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30042640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b02…67a3backed Hawks55c3,810$2,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d6…d1e3backed Bucks53c3,784$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785.419949.7%99 W · 100 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4919…0c56backed Bucks46c3,776$1,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.259742.3%41 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Bucks51c3,714$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.1818747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Hawks10c3,621$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.711,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.