NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb4da95806f25929cc4f07164325847275b273b577716bc73afbe9f078a82569
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Hawks, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Hawks | 44c | 140,930$62,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,999.95 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Bucks | 56c | 110,279$61,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,522.79 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Bucks | 56c | 13,667$7,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,013.35 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 57c | 6,400$3,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,754.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 56c | 5,554$3,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,443.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks | 56c | 2,553$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.47 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks | 40c | 1,615$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.96 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 56c | 1,256$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.33 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Bucks | 58c | 850$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 60c | 764.17$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.67 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hawks | 41c | 661.71$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.3 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Hawks | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Hawks | 40c | 490$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Bucks | 57c | 429.36$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Hawks | 39c | 419.46$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.81 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Bucks | 58c | 406.66$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.51 | 279 | 43%120 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Bucks | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Hawks | 42c | 384.98$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.92 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Hawks | 42c | 377.35$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Bucks | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bucks | 56c | 311$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.84 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Bucks | 59c | 305.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Hawks | 43c | 279.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.01 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Bucks | 58c | 246.56$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Bucks | 56c | 244.1$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Hawks | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bucks | 59c | 220.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Bucks | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe833…1723backed Bucks | 58c | 171.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Hawks | 42c | 159.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Hawks | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Bucks | 56c | 87.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Bucks | 60c | 84.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Hawks | 41c | 82.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…7657backed Bucks | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Bucks | 57c | 78.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…aeccbacked Bucks | 69c | 77.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9031…5265backed Bucks | 59c | 77.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…fdb3backed Bucks | 56c | 60.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked Bucks | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Bucks | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…db5dbacked Hawks | 42c | 40.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…8129backed Bucks | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…3e65backed Bucks | 58c | 29.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…e9cbbacked Bucks | 58c | 28.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…4ca8backed Bucks | 56c | 28.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad48…4797backed Bucks | 64c | 27.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Bucks | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Bucks | 56c | 24.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Bucks | 56c | 22.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…4954backed Bucks | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Bucks | 60c | 20.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae8…5794backed Bucks | 65c | 19.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Bucks won
- Bucks vs. HawksBucks won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 203.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 206.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 209.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 210.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 211.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 212.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 219.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Bucks (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.