NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77593cc221abae677cc544f37de1b81b4ba36e7d4e967091b0f45cacf2544249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Hawks, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 47c | 17,397$8,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,212.03 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Hawks | 53c | 9,841$5,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,215.84 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,589.99 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe56d…2b65backed Hawks | 55c | 6,133$3,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,371 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Bucks | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Bucks | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…ed8cbacked Hawks | 53c | 3,294$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…85bebacked Hawks | 53c | 3,096$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…f0ecbacked Bucks | 50c | 3,003$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Bucks | 49c | 2,857$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.14 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks | 52c | 2,314$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.28 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks | 56c | 2,284$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.67 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 49c | 2,037$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Hawks | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.83 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Hawks | 45c | 1,568$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.78 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 52c | 1,379$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Hawks | 53c | 1,364$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.85 | 151 | 41.1%62 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7b…81b0backed Bucks | 47c | 1,279$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks | 53c | 1,264$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.11 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb02…58d3backed Bucks | 47c | 1,173$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Hawks | 55c | 1,115$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.24 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b5…0033backed Bucks | 47c | 1,102$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hawks | 51c | 1,100$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…e10dbacked Bucks | 47c | 1,046$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Hawks | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…e862backed Bucks | 47c | 913$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…dff0backed Bucks | 47c | 877$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…dbaabacked Hawks | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 379 | 30.6%116 W · 263 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…86dabacked Bucks | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Bucks | 46c | 314.66$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.92 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Bucks | 48c | 280.9$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.21 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hawks | 41c | 261$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.01 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Hawks | 50c | 231$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.27 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Bucks | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Hawks | 52c | 127.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bf…ffaebacked Hawks | 52c | 121.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…f158backed Hawks | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf89c…8937backed Bucks | 47c | 72.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +7.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…12a9backed Hawks | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 50c | 46.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Hawks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Hawks | 55c | 35.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Hawks | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked Hawks | 53c | 21.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…a4b5backed Hawks | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…dee4backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Hawks | 52c | 19.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Bucks won
- Bucks vs. HawksBucks won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 203.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 206.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 209.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 210.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 211.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 212.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 219.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Bucks (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.