NFL · resolved market
Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b2f02f402f60fb1b9b08db37d016811add3443c7ba7a131cc54f1f349e86faf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Yes | 67c | 5,000$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 31c | 4,717$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.32 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…1482backed Yes | 68c | 3,200$2,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.34per pick | 43cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 72c | 1,256$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.69 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes | 70c | 1,100$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,006$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.86 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 25c | 941$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 25c | 718$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed No | 75c | 674$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 25c | 609$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…4ca3backed No | 75c | 590$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…f72ebacked Yes | 25c | 518$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 75c | 512$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed No | 75c | 466$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…c9f8backed Yes | 69c | 364.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…b9b4backed Yes | 25c | 362$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…959abacked Yes | 69c | 343.64$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed No | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked No | 75c | 317$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed No | 75c | 265$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed No | 75c | 245$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…379abacked Yes | 75c | 205.81$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…262abacked Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 7cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 75c | 138$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 38cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Yes | 71c | 116.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 75c | 98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…4b98backed No | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 23c | 81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 72.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f27…d37ebacked No | 30c | 69.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 75c | 68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…8a8dbacked Yes | 68c | 51.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 69c | 42.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 37.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…ae72backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96de…6633backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 70c | 29.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 75c | 24.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 22.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Yes | 68c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?this page
- Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Divisional Round?No won
- Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Super Bowl?No won
- Will the Denver Broncos win the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.