NFL · resolved market
Will the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dedc32d2bc40b2a21407c2956705b78378618ed3110a46ba2f091069eb1078e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dc9…0e6ebacked Yes | 4c | 680$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 14c | 641$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed Yes | 16c | 632$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed Yes | 14c | 452$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 14c | 396$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 16c | 357$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 14c | 339$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 16c | 328$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 13c | 325.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 14c | 298$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 15c | 289$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 14c | 234$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 14c | 221$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 14c | 201$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 38cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 14c | 147$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked No | 78c | 129.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…1612backed Yes | 14c | 126$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 14c | 117$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 67.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 21c | 58.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 22.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Super Bowl?this page
- Will the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Divisional Round?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams win the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.