NFL · resolved market
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8b1b28f682da806d4ebd1320863772bee0dcdb66f977a2632c23e747bec0403
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,699$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 14c | 735$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 71c | 732.52$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.77 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 17c | 636$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 30c | 541.09$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed Yes | 17c | 492$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 14c | 483$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 17c | 446$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 15c | 432.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 17c | 424$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 17c | 380$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd50…e374backed Yes | 19c | 328.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 14c | 305$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 14c | 259$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 17c | 252$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes | 14c | 227$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 14c | 156$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 24c | 138$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes | 17c | 138$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 28c | 128.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 19c | 128$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc6…4690backed Yes | 15c | 128$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27d…3156backed Yes | 25c | 80.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…2024backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa5…477fbacked No | 79c | 53.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Los Angeles Rams win the Super Bowl?this page
- Will the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Divisional Round?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Super Bowl?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.