Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fe69796ee40e2c4d8545b8e0114ac3ff6ca685dff4cd0782e467e61522d64bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 73c | 15,311$11,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,173.96 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 12c | 9,027$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.63 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…9f73backed No | 50c | 7,195$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -52%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe1…e68cbacked Yes | 75c | 4,806$3,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 5c | 4,752$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.09 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 3,742$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…188bbacked No | 1c | 3,064$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…9b6cbacked No | 14c | 1,912$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 65c | 1,664$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.61 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 1c | 1,570$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…9e5abacked No | 1c | 1,489$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 66c | 1,413$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.24 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 25c | 1,207$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.81 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…e1d8backed No | 23c | 1,190$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 68c | 1,174$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.62 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…6fcbbacked No | 26c | 1,154$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.02 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,110$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.59 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 31c | 899.97$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.99 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked No | 35c | 866.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…575fbacked Yes | 60c | 835.55$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78e2…da9dbacked No | 37c | 821$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 59c | 697.24$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.99 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 36c | 684.46$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.99 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…c3d4backed No | 25c | 633.97$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f3…fa22backed No | 2c | 630.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 33c | 615.33$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.09 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked No | 37c | 600$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.35 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 23c | 596$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.08 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 50c | 563.99$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.84 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 32c | 548.78$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.58 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 59c | 511.85$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.85 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 29c | 502.74$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.14 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 50c | 500.41$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.2 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9525…d823backed No | 41c | 484.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca6…6fa8backed No | 31c | 430.46$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41df…4b70backed No | 50c | 398.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed No | 38c | 392.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…d517backed No | 5c | 339.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 71c | 329.34$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.32 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e93…1683backed No | 43c | 301.44$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.12 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 28c | 260.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 73c | 253.56$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed No | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…2fa9backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…8861backed No | 30c | 197.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 28c | 190.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 64c | 189.64$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 24c | 187.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3133…dc6ebacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…f831backed Yes | 67c | 149.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…9d5cbacked Yes | 58c | 149.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 145.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 65c | 138.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 37c | 136.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 37c | 133.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8d…4ea2backed Yes | 67c | 125.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…559fbacked No | 22c | 117.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 77c | 117.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 68c | 106$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 74c | 101.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…6508backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…c299backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1902…02d0backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…405fbacked No | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 29c | 95.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…3a3bbacked Yes | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 36c | 92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 27c | 91.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…8edebacked No | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 45c | 88.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…7552backed Yes | 80c | 88.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 85.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 32c | 85.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 64c | 82.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 76c | 79.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27f…61dabacked No | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4367…1933backed Yes | 42c | 71.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No | 55c | 71.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bb…d87cbacked No | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 54c | 65.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…f134backed No | 35c | 64.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 34c | 58.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 25c | 57.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked No | 39c | 56.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…31e2backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…b2c2backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes | 57c | 43.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 24c | 42.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28?this page
- Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.