World Politics · resolved market
North Korea missile test by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2697d0383ebabd64860434c7f80629df16395cc77037d867b35f9335df17e249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 9,711$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,434$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.76 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 22c | 2,207$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 11c | 1,783$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.71 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 16c | 1,700$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.99 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,606$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.09 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 12c | 1,400$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 21c | 1,260$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…84f7backed Yes | 18c | 1,190$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 78c | 1,149$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 17c | 889.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.95 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 18c | 878.21$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.04 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…2e37backed Yes | 16c | 871.6$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +221.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 79c | 785.58$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.53 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 19c | 382.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.14 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 40c | 357.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.02 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b8…83b9backed Yes | 15c | 340$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac1…1316backed No | 80c | 279.98$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 27c | 254.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.72 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 24c | 250.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.77 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…9a2dbacked Yes | 23c | 244.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.36 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 80c | 239.38$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 19c | 213.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.43 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 14c | 200.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.96 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 17c | 200$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed Yes | 74c | 184$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 76c | 179.06$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.95 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02df…22e1backed Yes | 12c | 169.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +323.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 50c | 108.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…7598backed Yes | 23c | 103.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +87%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 19c | 62.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0260…0d88backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 38c | 60.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +285.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +397.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ab…4481backed Yes | 30c | 36.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 67c | 27.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 77c | 13.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdf…c363backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.