TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,380,342
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,344,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,380,342 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 370 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2bec…1664backed Yes1c174,999$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes1c138,884$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.53228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes1c100,374$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.5360%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9745…c819backed Yes5c96,635$5,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,122.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4453…21a5backed Yes5c96,048$5,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,090.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c93,049$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.2925311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1070…9c0dbacked Yes4c71,484$2,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,855.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5c…55dfbacked Yes3c58,359$1,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.843560%21 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd4a…0507backed Yes1c47,445$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes2c46,800$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.43727%10 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x551e…65fdbacked Yes3c45,102$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc2…de66backed Yes3c39,460$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43d…8a2abacked Yes2c37,190$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+430.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a68…835abacked Yes1c34,600$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ca…dfacbacked Yes6c32,809$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x798f…d7d3backed Yes2c31,402$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x463c…3c5cbacked Yes1c31,178$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd39e…567fbacked Yes4c29,851$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.04714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick5cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcca4…8674backed Yes6c27,111$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa955…7e84backed Yes6c26,563$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,585.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2889…9226backed Yes0c26,293$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2970…e1c9backed Yes2c25,921$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.911414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19e9…aae5backed Yes1c24,617$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a62…bf9ebacked Yes1c23,977$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d3c…6fcebacked Yes5c22,720$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c21,713$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.425722.8%13 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe23b…f147backed Yes2c21,194$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5121323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+60.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x624c…8ed0backed Yes7c21,182$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc13…9c34backed Yes5c20,801$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.4380%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc39…8ad8backed Yes2c20,771$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.13650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+296.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes3c20,643$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.57432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc975…77cdbacked Yes2c20,157$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ab…bcd9backed Yes2c19,998$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes1c18,688$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c17,679$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.251074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c16,587$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.441302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c16,237$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.571432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ed…b5bcbacked Yes2c16,061$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd236…810ebacked Yes6c15,367$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f2…709abacked Yes1c14,646$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes3c13,370$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.984920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes2c13,032$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.741346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c82…7c0abacked Yes2c12,801$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c12,734$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.051414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-72.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Yes0c12,731$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+306.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12e6…d6cdbacked Yes4c12,420$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c22…e4dbbacked Yes4c12,414$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.171233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+231%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes5c12,036$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.08147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-86.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffaf…64c6backed Yes3c10,507$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c10,366$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc640…ccbebacked Yes5c10,289$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-54.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes2c10,272$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+662.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c8…b0ecbacked Yes6c10,103$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2039…d680backed Yes6c9,533$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c8,994$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.39631.6%1 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d0c…654cbacked Yes5c8,988$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes4c8,536$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.29170%0 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdca…43e4backed Yes13c8,115$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…33f6backed Yes1c8,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0783…4385backed Yes5c7,761$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb55…347ebacked Yes3c7,554$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-72.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9290…5d22backed Yes1c7,143$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12d…26d1backed Yes8c7,092$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.32911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5226…26f4backed Yes8c7,076$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f12…62a4backed Yes2c7,058$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6b…3e58backed Yes3c7,015$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x277e…bbaabacked Yes5c6,806$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c4…f8edbacked Yes3c6,295$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c6,287$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.01752.7%2 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes4c6,000$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…be8cbacked Yes5c5,499$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes1c5,376$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.411711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-83.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x023c…a6a4backed Yes3c5,168$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6102…702cbacked Yes4c5,124$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.39616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d17…04debacked Yes2c5,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca6…a9f9backed Yes2c4,822$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6447…69b7backed Yes6c4,810$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.12911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-81.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09fd…b61ebacked Yes1c4,779$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e4…8e47backed Yes3c4,734$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c0…01edbacked Yes2c4,671$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes6c4,642$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.09611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7711…2beebacked Yes6c4,412$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.98100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bcb…b602backed Yes2c4,348$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8757…72bcbacked Yes2c4,333$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ef…dc34backed Yes2c4,280$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0efd…2030backed Yes2c4,249$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ca…5e9bbacked Yes2c4,248$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68b6…3f6fbacked Yes5c4,200$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-89.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e60…06a2backed Yes2c4,200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes2c4,183$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-4.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7000…92b2backed Yes3c4,117$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f1…841abacked Yes7c4,100$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x965d…32b3backed Yes2c4,093$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff6f…407cbacked Yes3c3,984$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x070e…47b4backed Yes3c3,912$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes5c3,900$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.55340%0 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78ff…08d0backed Yes7c3,758$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes1c3,741$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes1c3,700$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+144.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc53c…bf59backed Yes1c3,634$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.