TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Ukraine control Demidovka on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,418
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,418 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes29c7,836$2,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,302.6824258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes30c3,628$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.251643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No76c3,277$2,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.496033.3%20 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e26…336cbacked No69c3,131$2,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.043666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c2,769$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.97712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Yes13c2,373$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes45c2,106$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.374450%22 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes17c2,067$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.629115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb05…12f8backed No63c2,051$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.51973.7%14 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+84%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9833…7844backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-59.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No78c1,662$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.521050%5 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed Yes79c1,292$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.2714456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed No38c1,255$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.2413429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c1,191$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.126835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4d48…dd1ebacked No68c1,165$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.952020%4 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed Yes54c1,100$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5972759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked Yes20c1,090$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2209962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed No28c1,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7208615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed No55c980.16$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.897851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ae…52edbacked Yes18c965.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c5…dc8abacked Yes4c900$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca8…9779backed Yes4c900$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes32c899.97$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.55742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed Yes43c864.4$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.3910241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes16c814.77$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.4911225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda2a…2f33backed Yes14c730.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes17c729.87$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.282020%4 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-59.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a79…8e05backed Yes51c729.18$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.261850%9 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes8c657.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.11419.8%4 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed Yes44c597.91$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2669360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No53c546.11$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.7611647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes6c505$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.748927%24 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0122…159cbacked No45c467.07$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.072123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-51.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed No39c421.74$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.743756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfade…283bbacked No50c403.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.033574.3%26 W · 9 L+5.9wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+33.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18011050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88db…4228backed Yes8c383.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312568%17 W · 8 L+7.0wins+0.28per pick40cpaid+219.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes9c379.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3220026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50d7…dbcabacked No78c370.01$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.61580%12 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+26.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No68c352.78$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.0225528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6704…d171backed Yes31c344.37$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes10c339.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.365632.1%18 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes10c316.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3360%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes17c307.8$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9441736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x47cc…e2a5backed No43c291.82$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d85…c1b8backed Yes45c289.24$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.162142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+42.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes38c249.24$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.722330.4%7 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-57.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed Yes31c248.95$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.586830.9%21 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90eb…f9dbbacked Yes23c248.49$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.82227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-58.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes30c236.36$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9115451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe431…4363backed Yes45c220.09$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No40c208.18$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.9912937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad73…a0ffbacked Yes75c206.27$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.4920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb612…c6b0backed Yes65c200$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes71c199.98$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.999734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6477…707dbacked Yes43c172.5$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.271030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No66c166.59$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No69c151.49$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.493458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes76c150$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.71346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbe…c93cbacked No70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes8c136.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.215127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa26f…9cefbacked Yes39c130$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes16c126.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes67c126.82$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5735341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c118.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2239429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes24c116.24$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.263119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec76…1036backed Yes42c115.56$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481650%8 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78da…e609backed Yes54c109.4$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.032661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ed3…bbdebacked Yes32c102.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.91942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+76.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87d0…57c5backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172965.5%19 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed No36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6390…5ee8backed No80c99.71$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285f…bfaebacked Yes40c93.28$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes32c80.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.643148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a07…2de1backed Yes43c79.47$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.221435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3763…67bcbacked No64c76.05$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.541838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf130…88ddbacked No58c70.69$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.694153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fc…0ab0backed No74c70.43$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a73…d029backed No43c69.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6465…e38fbacked Yes30c67.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.175461.1%33 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed Yes57c66.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.832982.8%24 W · 5 L+5.2wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+25.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No75c65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.458652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No32c61.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.075327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No65c61.4$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3511542.6%49 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e3d…ff92backed No74c60.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.681442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd03c…68cfbacked No37c60.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.891844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes75c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No45c57.47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.765541.8%23 W · 32 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked No78c52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2812830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b74…2891backed No43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.33955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa972…d075backed Yes40c49.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes61c49.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c48.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2826318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c88…9482backed Yes42c48.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3df…e928backed No57c43.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.532100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+207.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1814…14a1backed No50c38.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd14…4634backed No57c37.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.