TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump designate cartels as terrorists before March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,232

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,259 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c16,193$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.45132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7967…f4a0backed No18c8,000$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes76c3,929$2,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.482334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8452…9056backed No34c3,832$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,296.631656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes78c3,446$2,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.935123.5%12 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes78c3,238$2,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.0427828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No25c2,943$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.081258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No1c2,930$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.68048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48e3…03ccbacked Yes71c2,833$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba2…eaa7backed Yes69c2,772$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.65757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1744…1d2abacked Yes73c2,430$1,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes76c2,043$1,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.651136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba01…1ebabacked Yes77c2,014$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.711338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No27c1,208$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.251330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No2c1,191$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes64c1,163$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.414250%21 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x865c…ea31backed No21c1,040$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7a…8cc1backed No34c971.53$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes74c966$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.682842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2cd7…0643backed Yes63c777.19$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.19714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No37c728.39$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.08238.7%2 W · 21 L-5.1wins-0.22per pick31cpaid-79%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed No25c636.29$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c4…bf28backed No16c620.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No34c600$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.554934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes64c579.99$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2061560%9 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1257254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No20c500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x966a…4d34backed No25c484.13$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4867…89dcbacked No50c482.13$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No25c462.06$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.527125.4%18 W · 53 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e8e…7737backed No20c457.73$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.31050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No32c457.58$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.657636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked No19c456.29$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.671323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a1…b435backed No58c431.86$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes72c360$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.83540%14 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No23c347.22$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1788448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes42c336.23$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.145633.9%19 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes75c335.43$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.051,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No19c330$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes72c329.52$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.851533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-40.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No12c299.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes66c285.49$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.92955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No16c282.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-61.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x600a…5e70backed No5c260$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No17c225.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.317227.9%48 W · 124 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No16c225$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.251323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes63c209.77$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1418530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed Yes75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+32.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed Yes78c200$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No15c187.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.471,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f1…05e2backed No25c185.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed No28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No19c163.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2820614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe306…d100backed Yes72c160$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.82839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No26c150.45$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9610520%21 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf74d…7476backed No24c150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes74c146.56$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5936742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No26c141$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.96786.4%5 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-77.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes63c135.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.581442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed Yes70c120$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5da1…980bbacked No20c119.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.69633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed No52c105.96$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.121833.3%6 W · 12 L-5.0wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-45%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2463…f0e4backed Yes75c105.95$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3eb…c286backed No19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d50…1160backed Yes71c103.17$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.92540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-74.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2511435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4116…779dbacked Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes59c99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.79560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd897…a582backed No44c97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.08520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-70.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes80c95.05$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.276755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed No40c94.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.76757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+166%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed No32c92.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+94.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5193…cebcbacked Yes73c91$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f3…f6b1backed No29c90.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a5…b2c1backed No19c88.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.860%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes65c79.4$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8120051.5%103 W · 97 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes73c67.81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+147.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No30c61.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.114630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153342.4%14 W · 19 L-8.2wins-0.25per pick67cpaid-37%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No49c56.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.545817.2%10 W · 48 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb553…88cebacked Yes48c51.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5faf…a1d1backed No40c50.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90a9…03e6backed Yes69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e80…658dbacked No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf62d…d3a0backed Yes71c49.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x284f…31efbacked Yes58c46.11$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No45c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3415237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…8e16backed Yes78c40.79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed Yes71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.65754.4%31 W · 26 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0943…4a2fbacked Yes60c32.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.05475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c99…c1c0backed Yes75c31.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.891643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked Yes68c28.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.852055%11 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69b4…db29backed Yes75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.67366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f0…31a1backed Yes76c26.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c6c…b6d7backed Yes79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.