Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump try to fire Powell by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e1c72e3d2f028b3e54b7069ec62868601099f426932dfd54d655198aee2b567
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 1c | 7,222$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 5,730$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.43 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9e…e4a8backed Yes | 1c | 4,611$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,494$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.91 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 2,252$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,776$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 1c | 1,722$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,710$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…63bcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,386$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,227$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 1c | 1,030$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes | 4c | 1,003$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 2c | 860.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 799.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 4c | 791.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…7687backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 205.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 199.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.