Us Politics · resolved market
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x543ba850eaf09aadbb606ff433158601503d1a83d3b10783058c7242f06feb53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 6c | 19,833$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.35 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 24c | 15,690$3,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,827.29 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 13c | 12,621$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.46 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 17c | 11,005$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,832$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.3 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 7c | 3,457$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.14 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 6c | 3,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 30c | 2,637$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.18 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 72c | 2,316$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.33 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 20c | 2,066$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.23 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 38c | 2,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 1,727$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 8c | 1,551$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 1,453$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,171$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 30c | 1,070$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.99 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 7c | 1,016$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 20c | 999.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.46 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 9c | 993.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…526abacked Yes | 5c | 980$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…f075backed Yes | 5c | 900$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 6c | 845.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…5e3cbacked Yes | 5c | 840$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 30c | 620.01$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 620$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…77b2backed Yes | 4c | 595$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…030bbacked Yes | 8c | 583.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Yes | 5c | 559.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 7c | 536.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 56c | 510$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.55 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 8c | 500.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 60c | 476.99$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 74c | 467.18$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa890…1c30backed Yes | 4c | 440$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed38…4f73backed Yes | 20c | 420$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 16c | 412.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…27adbacked Yes | 8c | 327.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…0c59backed No | 57c | 316.13$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc522…fbc3backed Yes | 19c | 314.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc14…e34cbacked Yes | 4c | 305$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…3257backed No | 80c | 220$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb160…812bbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 189.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6802…3f97backed Yes | 7c | 179.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 43c | 162.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 16c | 125.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…d7debacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…1f27backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 31c | 65.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%?this page
- Will Randy Fine win by 10-15%?Yes won
- Will Randy Fine win by 20-25%?No won
- Will Randy Fine win by less than 10%?No won
- Will Randy Fine win by more than 25%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.