Us Politics · resolved market
Will Randy Fine win by less than 10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42130982c2ec0fee136896cf2a8cf2b8368ef65a5f96b2cf5cf4669890dcb3cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $516,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $469,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $516,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f07…9d45backed No | 35c | 83,012$29,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,957.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…70ccbacked Yes | 65c | 82,992$53,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,944.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 25c | 27,590$6,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,836.6 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 69c | 21,126$14,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,661.42 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 11c | 20,083$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.27 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 63c | 11,202$7,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,124.94 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed Yes | 19c | 10,575$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006.47 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 72c | 9,160$6,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,602.01 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 60c | 9,116$5,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,478.51 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 34c | 4,695$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,109 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 69c | 4,500$3,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,090 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 39c | 4,347$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.69 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 12c | 3,740$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.45 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 7c | 3,706$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.97 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 3,570$2,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.56 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 35c | 3,500$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 33c | 3,417$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,302.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 4c | 2,753$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 70c | 2,532$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.69 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 24c | 2,454$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.79 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 64c | 2,257$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 41c | 2,000$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 30c | 1,453$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.39 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 48c | 1,436$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.63 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 9c | 1,390$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,279$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958b…4ec4backed No | 44c | 1,268$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 24c | 1,159$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.7 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 4c | 1,111$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…22a3backed Yes | 12c | 1,057$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.12 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 64c | 785.56$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.51 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…144abacked Yes | 49c | 767.37$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 47c | 621.45$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.09 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 80c | 597.78$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 35c | 577.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…2ea9backed Yes | 75c | 545$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 46c | 517.69$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.91 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…913bbacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…030bbacked Yes | 65c | 491.35$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 64c | 487.35$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.8 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 36c | 480.06$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.57 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…f49ebacked No | 71c | 467$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 65c | 450$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…eb42backed No | 25c | 410$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 66c | 402.88$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.01 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 60c | 333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 22c | 314.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…839bbacked No | 25c | 310$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 32c | 303.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.95 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 33c | 296.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 289.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d7…23b6backed Yes | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 64c | 262.7$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.89 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a4…58f7backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 34c | 220.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.54 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8142…b413backed No | 25c | 219.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed No | 60c | 219.53$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d6…4cb4backed No | 30c | 206.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed No | 31c | 191$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 50cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…5762backed Yes | 59c | 184.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed No | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 32c | 160.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…532fbacked Yes | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 57c | 141.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 29c | 135.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked Yes | 75c | 133.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…91a5backed No | 33c | 126.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…6f00backed Yes | 75c | 125$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…84a0backed Yes | 75c | 125$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 64c | 122.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…eb28backed Yes | 66c | 114.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 40c | 101.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…771dbacked No | 40c | 100.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 77c | 79.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Yes | 69c | 68.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…27adbacked Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 60c | 66.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…4935backed Yes | 69c | 65.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc099…00f0backed No | 32c | 63.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 61c | 55.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed No | 27c | 51.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 50.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d8a5backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9535…1a4cbacked No | 71c | 46.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…9cbcbacked Yes | 75c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac3…750bbacked Yes | 70c | 42.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…0eaabacked Yes | 70c | 40.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe786…f1eabacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 59cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Randy Fine win by less than 10%?this page
- Will Randy Fine win by 10-15%?Yes won
- Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%?No won
- Will Randy Fine win by 20-25%?No won
- Will Randy Fine win by more than 25%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.