Us Politics · resolved market
Will Randy Fine win by 20-25%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb289119c240d94c9f0fa09306d4024f4dee1f550c0d6615fd571c72cf1e3af15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 38,580$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 6c | 12,919$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.89 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 2c | 10,841$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.51 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 0c | 5,005$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 3,780$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 2,498$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes | 12c | 2,190$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,492$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb94d…4402backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…030bbacked Yes | 4c | 675.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 2c | 650$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 14c | 500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 6c | 282$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 6c | 210.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…bd80backed Yes | 15c | 140.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 15c | 98.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Randy Fine win by 20-25%?this page
- Will Randy Fine win by 10-15%?Yes won
- Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%?No won
- Will Randy Fine win by less than 10%?No won
- Will Randy Fine win by more than 25%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.