TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, LGD Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,133
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$197,567

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,133 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef27…381bbacked BetBoom Team65c23,654$15,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,230.353154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe9…5f53backed BetBoom Team64c11,959$7,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,364.181369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked LGD Gaming39c9,895$3,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,826.9832548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked BetBoom Team64c9,194$5,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,284.9450347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked LGD Gaming36c8,010$2,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.4423435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ff…473dbacked LGD Gaming35c7,500$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6251020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x472b…5d5fbacked BetBoom Team77c6,453$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,453.331942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed LGD Gaming36c5,621$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.958536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked LGD Gaming35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75019847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked LGD Gaming36c4,662$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.234161%25 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+28.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed LGD Gaming35c3,433$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.0615544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed LGD Gaming34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02036248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked BetBoom Team67c3,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99059254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bc1…c168backed BetBoom Team64c2,900$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0442429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-43.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed LGD Gaming36c2,780$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.83237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed BetBoom Team64c2,759$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.3734860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked LGD Gaming33c2,740$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.8122340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked LGD Gaming27c2,623$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.0814446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed BetBoom Team61c2,279$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.0871143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked LGD Gaming37c2,167$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79522842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc57f…1746backed BetBoom Team64c2,140$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.31258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+60.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed BetBoom Team64c2,053$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.922138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-38.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed LGD Gaming36c2,000$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.9981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x024a…35a3backed BetBoom Team63c1,758$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.694065%26 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed BetBoom Team65c1,627$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed LGD Gaming35c1,624$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.851,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed BetBoom Team64c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked LGD Gaming36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed LGD Gaming35c1,458$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.4529243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c72…7e7ebacked BetBoom Team64c1,450$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5224632.6%15 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed LGD Gaming23c1,361$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.3393546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked LGD Gaming15c1,346$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.181,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed LGD Gaming40c1,223$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.21,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed LGD Gaming34c1,200$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.9918830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked LGD Gaming35c1,164$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.4820827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed LGD Gaming23c1,092$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.378328.9%24 W · 59 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked LGD Gaming36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36028251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a0e…2330backed LGD Gaming37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3705639.3%22 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked LGD Gaming34c999.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34021045.7%96 W · 114 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BetBoom Team62c967.72$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.291,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed BetBoom Team66c955.74$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.9512646%58 W · 68 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked LGD Gaming34c942.27$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.3711839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed LGD Gaming17c938.05$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5143860.5%265 W · 173 L+44.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9d4d…4065backed BetBoom Team62c891$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.583562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed BetBoom Team59c844.91$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.4122363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked LGD Gaming36c842.22$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011656%65 W · 51 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed LGD Gaming37c813$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.255137.3%19 W · 32 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed LGD Gaming22c800$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1761,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked LGD Gaming36c800$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28814259.9%85 W · 57 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed BetBoom Team73c800$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21623736.7%87 W · 150 L-17.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x39ea…f75bbacked LGD Gaming36c785.94$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.941729.4%5 W · 12 L-5.3wins-0.31per pick61cpaid-50.3%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9c87…516bbacked BetBoom Team64c781.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.2515961%97 W · 62 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed BetBoom Team65c766.77$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.7747660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked BetBoom Team64c765.63$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.6335461.3%217 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked LGD Gaming34c763$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.0543049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked BetBoom Team62c750$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2851,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed BetBoom Team70c749.98$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.4921353.5%114 W · 99 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed BetBoom Team67c669.98$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.014445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked LGD Gaming33c618.12$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.981,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BetBoom Team69c616.25$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.731,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked LGD Gaming20c588.78$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.761,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c9…271bbacked LGD Gaming17c583.53$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.23764.9%24 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fcc…ee29backed BetBoom Team65c576.12$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.3717451.7%90 W · 84 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed LGD Gaming35c573.64$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.776726.9%18 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a1e…fd05backed LGD Gaming35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011949.6%59 W · 60 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2141…0effbacked BetBoom Team65c546.15$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.155048%24 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked LGD Gaming35c531.3$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9646240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked LGD Gaming11c516.68$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.175740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked BetBoom Team63c512$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.4412155.4%67 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+134.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked LGD Gaming21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d35…b406backed BetBoom Team64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked LGD Gaming35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17561449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked BetBoom Team64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1805961%36 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked BetBoom Team65c491.63$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.929052.2%47 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked LGD Gaming5c461$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.978048.8%39 W · 41 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x697f…e44ebacked BetBoom Team64c454.69$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6911159.5%66 W · 45 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea6…428abacked BetBoom Team57c421.05$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.051968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+27.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed LGD Gaming36c400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14438142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe66e…946bbacked BetBoom Team64c400$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14421043.8%92 W · 118 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7dc1…662fbacked BetBoom Team64c390.63$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6311257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked LGD Gaming40c390$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.261,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f90…a39fbacked BetBoom Team65c379.75$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.7514563.4%92 W · 53 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e8c…500abacked LGD Gaming36c368.73$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.74742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed LGD Gaming35c365.43$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8118247.8%87 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ee…878ebacked LGD Gaming36c319.19$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.919552.6%50 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked LGD Gaming35c314.29$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106544.6%29 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed8e…e61bbacked BetBoom Team65c310.48$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.672055%11 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2776…4ecbbacked BetBoom Team66c303$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.027262.5%45 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed LGD Gaming36c300.31$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6133445.2%151 W · 183 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb51f…b7dbbacked LGD Gaming34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025038%19 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed LGD Gaming36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1088223.2%19 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked LGD Gaming34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028842%37 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked LGD Gaming34c299.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10221253.8%114 W · 98 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked LGD Gaming10c290.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9789238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed BetBoom Team64c284.73$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2171342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c2…a16ebacked BetBoom Team72c276.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7338167.2%256 W · 125 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6bf…05b6backed LGD Gaming36c275$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked BetBoom Team73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9719849%97 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f0…3206backed BetBoom Team64c270$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.23545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed LGD Gaming37c260.7$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.468851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.