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MLB · resolved market

Red Sox vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Red Soxof Red Sox, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$185,524

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,674 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Nationals48c24,377$11,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,701.081,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Red Sox52c20,000$10,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,60060451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Red Sox58c17,371$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,370.754461.4%27 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nationals42c14,215$5,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,970.181,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals42c13,420$5,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,662.512,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf339…e010backed Red Sox70c12,436$8,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,738.226150.8%31 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Nationals45c6,935$3,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,118.0197950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Red Sox56c6,326$3,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,807.869249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals23c5,607$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.441,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0512…6f17backed Red Sox51c5,152$2,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.8944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd88…1ca6backed Red Sox75c3,938$2,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.143464.7%22 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Red Sox50c3,856$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,928.1599549.9%497 W · 498 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd12d…d764backed Red Sox73c3,200$2,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8723351.5%17 W · 16 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick65cpaid-20.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Red Sox52c2,885$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.621,21940.4%493 W · 726 L-33.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Nationals1c2,513$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.445053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Nationals17c2,400$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.9511040.9%45 W · 65 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals48c2,354$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.332,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1045…6cf8backed Red Sox50c2,200$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Red Sox52c1,908$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.5239041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Nationals1c1,814$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.078762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x592a…7a5ebacked Nationals49c1,759$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd018…cf6ebacked Nationals49c1,700$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick54cpaid-74%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf5e9…0b33backed Red Sox50c1,650$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb142…cd11backed Red Sox50c1,601$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.418748.1%90 W · 97 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Nationals50c1,474$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73528258.5%165 W · 117 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x343d…456ebacked Nationals48c1,474$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.423360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Nationals13c1,340$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17210719.6%21 W · 86 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ad1…acf4backed Nationals49c1,301$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.54825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-54.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10e1…5d54backed Red Sox51c1,290$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.11181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick51cpaid+61.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Nationals1c1,271$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.375862%12 W · 574 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c8…2223backed Red Sox71c1,268$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.612343.5%10 W · 13 L-5.0wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-34.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a7f…4cd8backed Red Sox75c1,223$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.44938.8%19 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea05…1a54backed Nationals50c1,160$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Nationals28c1,091$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8218349.2%90 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Red Sox52c1,047$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.9474356.9%423 W · 320 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ce…7e7fbacked Nationals50c1,040$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Nationals36c1,019$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.38032.5%26 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Red Sox51c999.99$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49032852.4%172 W · 156 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Red Sox52c949.37$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.713946.8%65 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4976…bea2backed Red Sox51c902$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.98650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Nationals49c895.37$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.7338949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb4a…ed6dbacked Nationals50c850$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Red Sox52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38495950.1%480 W · 479 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9653…f09dbacked Nationals50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe456…a60bbacked Red Sox51c798$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.02742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0fa…0a56backed Red Sox58c682.84$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.841250%6 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Red Sox52c655.7$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.989,86246.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L+40.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Nationals48c603.87$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.8631145.7%142 W · 169 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd180…0989backed Red Sox52c581.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.18742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Nationals49c577.55$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28517037.6%64 W · 106 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc52…a021backed Nationals50c573.02$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.5120944%92 W · 117 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Nationals41c531.13$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.991,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x467a…0727backed Nationals49c528.08$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.091533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-31.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5ccf…c116backed Nationals50c526.27$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.099745.4%44 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff24…76c1backed Nationals49c510.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.379332.3%30 W · 63 L-16.8wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xdb3d…ed7ebacked Red Sox79c507.22$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.223253.1%17 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Nationals49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20039436%142 W · 252 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f48…c6adbacked Nationals4c389.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Red Sox52c383.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.0753448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed Red Sox74c343.66$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.64161%25 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nationals49c326$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.746,30948.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f93…e313backed Red Sox52c316.54$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.9415543.2%67 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals48c299.96$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.982,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Nationals50c292.26$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1351334.5%177 W · 336 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Red Sox50c272$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13641643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95ec…4b7ebacked Red Sox75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6738743.2%167 W · 220 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals49c258.99$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.912,05853.8%1,107 W · 951 L+33.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Red Sox51c254.11$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.5110041%41 W · 59 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Red Sox52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12057545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe98b…780dbacked Nationals50c246.44$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2215151%77 W · 74 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Nationals43c233$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1940548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Nationals50c220.63$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5454441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x157b…87dcbacked Red Sox74c219.14$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.142785.2%23 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+26.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7bab…33d6backed Nationals50c215.52$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Red Sox51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0838157.5%219 W · 162 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Red Sox51c195.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.262,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Red Sox52c193.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4647348.8%231 W · 242 L-22.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Sox52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.312,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Red Sox52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3131356.2%176 W · 137 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Red Sox49c182.28$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9671751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd666…08f2backed Nationals50c182$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x670d…fbe9backed Red Sox52c182$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.366747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee6…9d71backed Nationals50c160.58$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.29450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Red Sox76c157.89$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8966645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Nationals49c149.62$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8314949.7%74 W · 75 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Red Sox50c146$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7351955.3%287 W · 232 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Red Sox52c144.35$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.291,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2977…6efcbacked Nationals50c140.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.884045%18 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed Red Sox75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.333560%21 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Red Sox50c120.74$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3733852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec75…2e8fbacked Red Sox57c110.59$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.557749.4%38 W · 39 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Red Sox80c104.72$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.945764.9%37 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Red Sox52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4892754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Nationals47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.520954.5%114 W · 95 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5287…73f4backed Nationals50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Nationals49c99.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7411947.9%57 W · 62 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc54a…4b6fbacked Red Sox51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.046560%39 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22ef…7573backed Red Sox51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals49c96.18$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.131,09146.3%505 W · 586 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51c5…8866backed Red Sox52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.