TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Marlins vs. Reds

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Redsof Marlins, Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$185,332
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$200,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,332 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4dae…f8b2backed Reds65c51,175$33,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,846.7813352.6%70 W · 63 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Reds61c31,892$19,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,437.8560451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Marlins39c26,000$10,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,14038047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Marlins36c19,671$7,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,079.7635854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Marlins39c11,849$4,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,630.8860249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b0…6815backed Reds73c11,556$8,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,112.12437.5%9 W · 15 L-5.0wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-42.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Marlins32c10,333$3,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,302.2697950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Marlins24c7,321$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.059,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Reds61c6,048$3,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.0232852.4%172 W · 156 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Marlins36c5,500$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98020850%104 W · 104 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins39c5,143$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.792,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Marlins38c3,550$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.526949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Marlins18c3,527$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.161,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Marlins39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17031346.6%146 W · 167 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Marlins18c2,623$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.638249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Reds61c2,620$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.866645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bc…e520backed Reds61c2,266$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.7427953.4%149 W · 130 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Marlins1c2,246$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.58762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc27c…50b6backed Marlins37c2,005$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f6…009fbacked Marlins41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Marlins38c2,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9837446.8%175 W · 199 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Marlins38c1,952$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.7449250.4%248 W · 244 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Marlins1c1,923$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.35053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Marlins38c1,843$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.8573352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x879e…94e4backed Marlins39c1,700$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Reds60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.6780955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Marlins38c1,622$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.4226453.8%142 W · 122 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Reds61c1,618$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.4361346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Reds62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.936047.5%171 W · 189 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f93…e313backed Reds80c1,490$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29815543.2%67 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Marlins34c1,474$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Marlins36c1,390$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.811,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Marlins26c1,362$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.3514235.9%51 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Reds60c1,250$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.8895850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Marlins2c1,129$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027213.6%37 W · 235 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Marlins36c1,108$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40039436%142 W · 252 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fcf…48e1backed Marlins32c1,001$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9315642.9%67 W · 89 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Reds63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3701,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Marlins40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12bc…b36cbacked Reds61c911.16$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.162055%11 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Marlins2c890$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8796133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c9c…d685backed Reds61c872$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.08955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9879…105abacked Reds61c828$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick54cpaid-72.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Marlins36c820.45$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.365,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Reds60c750$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30024248.8%118 W · 124 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x996c…d8b9backed Marlins20c736.19$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Marlins40c716.13$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.4534550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Reds64c712.45$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.4837857.4%217 W · 161 L+1.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Marlins2c689.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7840629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Marlins39c665.1$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.399245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Reds62c627.69$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.288366.3%55 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Marlins39c514.11$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.585047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Marlins17c506.36$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.910719.6%21 W · 86 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Marlins40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20063052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Marlins39c432.84$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.681,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Marlins24c419.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016157.1%92 W · 69 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Marlins39c412$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.871,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1a…bf3abacked Reds61c410.71$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.185666.1%37 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Reds60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16051151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca4…fde7backed Marlins37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1486450%32 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked Marlins37c397.46$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0616552.1%86 W · 79 L+12.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Reds62c393.89$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.681,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Marlins20c376.78$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.941,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Marlins40c375$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15057545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b4a…4e2dbacked Marlins22c362.31$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.510527.6%29 W · 76 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked Reds61c342.3$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.519852.5%104 W · 94 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59ee…7ad7backed Marlins6c329.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.364610.9%5 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Marlins39c329$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.316347.6%30 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Marlins36c328.14$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1344443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Marlins39c325.33$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.887554.7%41 W · 34 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+26.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Marlins39c320.51$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12570946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e12…7348backed Reds64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.538455.7%214 W · 170 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Reds66c304.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1539160.4%236 W · 155 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Reds62c292.34$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.281,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Marlins37c286.49$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10699951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Marlins38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10088549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5327…3b80backed Marlins39c262.08$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.213545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed Reds62c254.73$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.733560%21 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Marlins40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…67fdbacked Marlins41c245.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Marlins11c235.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2917927.9%50 W · 129 L-15.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Marlins39c232$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4834051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Marlins7c229.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1622312.1%27 W · 196 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…0797backed Marlins37c220$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.41861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+29.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9587…cd8ebacked Marlins37c216.22$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8031244.2%138 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Marlins40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Reds62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Marlins39c200$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Marlins40c191.97$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.792,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb5…510dbacked Reds61c191$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Marlins38c190.3$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3117139.2%67 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Marlins38c179.58$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.641,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Marlins38c177$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.11,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cbd…32d3backed Reds61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.932470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c67…13d1backed Reds62c163.31$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.062657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9a…12debacked Marlins39c162.67$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.441560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Reds62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2953448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Reds62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2931356.2%176 W · 137 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a6e…4c9fbacked Reds64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds65c154.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.462,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.