World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fc29bfc4ef8fc9d643d0d9ea5ae7d6a5db24b5585695009740a24d4fc5b3e84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dbc…a8c1backed No | 1c | 2,064$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 27c | 551$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 69c | 475$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 28c | 473.8$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.71 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 75c | 457.94$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.65 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 33c | 363.64$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f2…5bb5backed No | 29c | 342.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 76c | 300$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…e148backed Yes | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 69c | 242$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 24c | 198.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 73c | 164.69$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 22c | 164$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 75c | 133.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 70c | 126.12$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822a…861bbacked No | 36c | 114.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 65c | 96.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…8af0backed No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 25c | 68.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…0e14backed No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 28c | 43.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…3617backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c9…3c6bbacked No | 30c | 40.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…3eecbacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 29c | 38.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked No | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Boeing" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Google" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "King" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nvidia" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.