TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Pacific" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,808
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,808 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaf41…1587backed Yes79c1,569$1,236 inWon+$333.081942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed No23c666$153 inLost-$153.01825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No22c500$110 inLost-$1101770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfc6c…2912backed Yes66c312.27$207 inWon+$105.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No32c303.66$96 inLost-$96.212544%11 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c42…66b5backed No40c297.23$120 inLost-$1201546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes57c200$114 inWon+$865832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+75%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No53c130$69 inLost-$69.363360.6%20 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+40%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes65c119.25$78 inWon+$41.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+24.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75aa…9f2abacked Yes72c100.67$72 inWon+$28.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No35c70$25 inLost-$24.51,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes57c70$40 inWon+$30.37833.3%26 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed No25c65$16 inLost-$16.352147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4058…8b1cbacked No31c60$18 inLost-$18.452441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9280…9f91backed Yes71c50$36 inWon+$14.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked No26c42$11 inLost-$10.924843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc49…0062backed Yes43c40$17 inWon+$22.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed Yes48c40$19 inWon+$211952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed No35c30$11 inLost-$10.52544%11 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8848…0becbacked Yes67c22.39$15 inWon+$7.393100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a04…5830backed Yes54c20$11 inWon+$9.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes50c20$10 inWon+$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+86.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.