TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,198
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,198 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes33c372.99$122 inLost-$122.445832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+75%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes33c299.99$99 inLost-$99650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No67c288.5$193 inWon+$95.21770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c42…66b5backed No66c152.27$100 inWon+$52.271546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5042…fcb0backed No66c141.88$94 inWon+$48.244173.2%30 W · 11 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x742f…f392backed No66c75.83$50 inWon+$25.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes22c73.88$16 inLost-$16.334727.7%13 W · 34 L-6.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-42.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes27c50$14 inLost-$13.55523.6%13 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick30cpaid+51.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes27c49.99$13 inLost-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes31c49.6$16 inLost-$15.636742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed No73c41.58$30 inWon+$11.2320538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eaa…721bbacked No72c35$25 inWon+$9.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked No73c27.41$20 inWon+$7.41050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x872c…40e0backed No73c21.92$16 inWon+$5.921450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No55c20$11 inWon+$93672.2%26 W · 10 L+6.8wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+37%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.