TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,723
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,723 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0562…9d66backed No1c2,669$27 inLost-$26.694526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b2…383dbacked No2c1,500$30 inLost-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-66.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No4c625$25 inLost-$257335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked No46c221.18$101 inLost-$100.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c42…66b5backed No46c215.36$100 inLost-$1001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes52c180$94 inWon+$85.631546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes54c172$93 inWon+$79.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes56c170.51$95 inWon+$75.3120538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed Yes35c130$46 inWon+$84.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-52.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes55c117.09$65 inWon+$52.284843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No44c116.74$52 inLost-$51.841450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No45c96$43 inLost-$42.991,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes52c95.59$50 inWon+$45.887627.6%21 W · 55 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+40.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f10…6db5backed Yes55c92$51 inWon+$41.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed No46c81.72$38 inLost-$37.52922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No48c75$36 inLost-$364450%22 W · 22 L+6.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa027…9a07backed Yes46c70$32 inWon+$37.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes53c60$32 inWon+$28.22147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes55c49.99$27 inWon+$22.51442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes71c33$23 inWon+$9.651464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+35.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cc0…0e14backed Yes57c30$17 inWon+$12.9742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+50.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa897…b08bbacked No47c25.43$12 inLost-$12540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed Yes66c20$13 inWon+$6.84944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x872c…40e0backed Yes55c20$11 inWon+$91450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes55c20$11 inWon+$92441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.