World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab050360eb23be01c465fa5c24211d7f5e87489de1f14ea3ddfc5fa95191ce5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 43c | 291.71$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 55c | 276.67$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbab0…2b4abacked No | 63c | 256.79$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 58c | 191.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 63c | 190.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 60c | 169.09$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…6758backed Yes | 44c | 159.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 36c | 152.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 36c | 152.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b48…6b1abacked Yes | 55c | 72.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…369dbacked Yes | 37c | 56.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…0e14backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 54c | 48.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…45bbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed Yes | 44c | 45.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…7b02backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…b30bbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 61c | 40.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…7dffbacked No | 62c | 28.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78aa…7bf1backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…822fbacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed No | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Boeing" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Google" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "King" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nvidia" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.