World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31dd1740ca3d598864baa7fefba10229496d6776cf5760424e3705a36fadb210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec7b…faadbacked Yes | 27c | 2,849$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.38 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +742.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…a292backed No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 24c | 446.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 73c | 444$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 23c | 366.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 70c | 355.59$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 71c | 340$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 21c | 319.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 33c | 316.43$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…6b39backed No | 77c | 283.83$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 78c | 281.02$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 22c | 248.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 24c | 240.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 74c | 201.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 27c | 162.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 76c | 158.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 67c | 149.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 27c | 121.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…555ebacked No | 66c | 111.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579b…4a2bbacked Yes | 23c | 88.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 76c | 76.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…13acbacked No | 78c | 72.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…5dc3backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 68.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0728…d4e0backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…0e14backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 77c | 46.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 37c | 37.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…2dfabacked No | 76c | 31.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd63…9ea6backed Yes | 36c | 30.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c8…d093backed No | 67c | 29.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…edabbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…dee1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Boeing" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Google" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "King" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nvidia" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.