World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x629de479910eb6a6cffbef52c6c626abfbaab5ae0d39691975e9760776ccf4f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b2…383dbacked No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 70c | 2,298$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.75 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…faadbacked Yes | 27c | 1,771$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.51 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +742.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 4c | 1,125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.31per pick | 15cpaid | +216.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.27per pick | 8cpaid | +854.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 63c | 561.21$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…8f82backed No | 63c | 306.36$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…56ecbacked Yes | 38c | 296.96$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 35c | 279$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.35 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 31c | 232.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 22c | 227$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 64c | 218.15$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.58 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 32c | 211.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.45 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 57c | 169.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 59c | 168.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 65c | 154.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 66c | 144.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 66c | 99.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 35c | 90.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…7343backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…0e14backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…157abacked No | 66c | 75.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…b18fbacked Yes | 39c | 69.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…3617backed Yes | 40c | 60.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 23c | 44.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…000fbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0453…2ad6backed No | 56c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 43c | 39.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…c894backed Yes | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 43c | 37.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 34c | 35.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 34c | 35.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc238…d690backed Yes | 37c | 32.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 55c | 32.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 60c | 27.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…d33bbacked Yes | 60c | 26.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked No | 40c | 26.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f31…c075backed No | 67c | 22.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…ae93backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1b…9397backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Boeing" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Google" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "King" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nvidia" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.