World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "King" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99e9b4705ba4854693de98037169bb8062df93e061043305620352b57d76257f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b2…383dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 36c | 402$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.41 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 38c | 280.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 38c | 164.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 61c | 164.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 63c | 151$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 66c | 138.18$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 57c | 100.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed No | 59c | 92.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…4d4ebacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 65c | 76.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 60c | 69.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…a2d3backed No | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 36c | 35.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…c454backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 66c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc49…0062backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0835…4c91backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 57c | 18.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "King" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Boeing" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Google" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nvidia" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.