World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86dbc71dfb52d2792e68311c00319def5d55d90043ceac15a57654d3cdc22c08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 34c | 349.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d13…a252backed No | 33c | 273.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 69c | 267.66$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 25c | 209.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 71c | 208.85$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 66c | 199.96$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ff…dd6ebacked No | 33c | 152.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e81…7db5backed No | 34c | 148.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Yes | 71c | 140.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x579b…4a2bbacked Yes | 73c | 136.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe127…546cbacked No | 30c | 134.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 134$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 1,344 | 44.3%595 W · 749 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d2…2126backed Yes | 75c | 133.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 71c | 102.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…973cbacked No | 34c | 100.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…8355backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 63c | 92.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 68c | 65.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 28c | 63.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…23a1backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…13acbacked No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 71c | 54.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…31e3backed Yes | 69c | 49.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a3…961abacked No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed No | 30c | 41.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…f477backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a3…541fbacked No | 29c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…a00abacked Yes | 75c | 38.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…3617backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa942…0221backed Yes | 71c | 30.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 70c | 30.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 72c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47c…77f4backed Yes | 68c | 29.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496e…5690backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f54…cd2abacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 70c | 25.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked Yes | 69c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…04b1backed Yes | 70c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…9ef9backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78c9…1623backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…e564backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…3f71backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea67…554bbacked Yes | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…0822backed Yes | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 61c | 17.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8c…a00bbacked Yes | 72c | 17.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Boeing" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Google" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "King" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nvidia" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?No won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.