World Politics · resolved market
Bolsonaro guilty?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95e9999a49f50fcc34d2d4a41646a654ebe1055b207731bce44283ce090f71fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f33…0479backed No | 11c | 13,731$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86d…5b7bbacked No | 3c | 9,305$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 75c | 6,709$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…2725backed No | 0c | 6,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 23c | 5,719$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x638f…cda3backed No | 1c | 5,528$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 57c | 3,000$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…1baebacked No | 1c | 2,085$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 2,080$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f7…f5c1backed No | 14c | 1,666$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…ff68backed No | 11c | 1,635$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…b497backed No | 26c | 1,517$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce0…8c2bbacked No | 8c | 1,449$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e7…7da3backed No | 10c | 1,340$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 17c | 1,319$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.55 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 31c | 1,220$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.15 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31f6…0c40backed No | 1c | 1,210$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 931.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bc…f829backed No | 22c | 928.82$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 8c | 909.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee29…8c8bbacked No | 2c | 905.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2c…9b1cbacked No | 9c | 847.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 822.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8e…bf01backed No | 9c | 816.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 763.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…fee4backed No | 8c | 656.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 6c | 626.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 11c | 599.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 34c | 599.97$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.99 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 3c | 551.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…1b76backed No | 15c | 528.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabc…405ebacked Yes | 69c | 504.5$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2,378.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 61c | 494.26$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.66 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 9c | 426.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 40c | 399.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 18c | 388.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…ac6dbacked No | 24c | 385.02$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 79c | 369.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 367.18$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4707backed No | 19c | 362.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…19d4backed No | 23c | 334$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked No | 19c | 311.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…0603backed No | 19c | 310.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 14c | 308.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…f07dbacked No | 16c | 281.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde81…d44bbacked No | 25c | 262.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7f…497abacked No | 8c | 241.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…67b1backed No | 17c | 235.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed Yes | 78c | 218.37$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f05…ef15backed No | 20c | 206.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 29c | 190$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 13c | 183.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 22c | 157.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…cb4cbacked No | 42c | 155$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…58aabacked No | 7c | 154.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…b8b4backed No | 19c | 150.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…f5febacked No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 79c | 147.75$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x575e…5b86backed No | 14c | 144.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 15c | 127.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…6499backed No | 39c | 127$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…02d8backed No | 16c | 123.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 16c | 123.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa646…0554backed No | 18c | 122.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…4b62backed No | 15c | 109.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e5…f524backed No | 17c | 105.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…41e3backed No | 12c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7950…80e4backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 41c | 99.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed No | 21c | 95.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…cff5backed No | 15c | 95.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…3089backed No | 16c | 92.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…6fd5backed No | 19c | 80.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…c332backed Yes | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…78a3backed Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 79c | 63.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…1d68backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…ed7bbacked Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 80c | 38.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 79c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33cb…d41bbacked Yes | 78c | 34.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632c…9c1ebacked Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…4030backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…67bcbacked Yes | 67c | 22.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…99d7backed Yes | 78c | 21.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.