TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Bolsonaro guilty?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,191
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,191 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f33…0479backed No11c13,731$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86d…5b7bbacked No3c9,305$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa975…f137backed Yes75c6,709$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.61478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+28%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd228…2725backed No0c6,700$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No23c5,719$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335.82922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-61.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x638f…cda3backed No1c5,528$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Yes57c3,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2802100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d50…1baebacked No1c2,085$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c2,080$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.222939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f7…f5c1backed No14c1,666$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x626d…ff68backed No11c1,635$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a6…b497backed No26c1,517$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce0…8c2bbacked No8c1,449$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e7…7da3backed No10c1,340$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No17c1,319$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.5516029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No31c1,220$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.1527828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31f6…0c40backed No1c1,210$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No11c931.1$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.971,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bc…f829backed No22c928.82$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No8c909.89$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.462642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee29…8c8bbacked No2c905.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2c…9b1cbacked No9c847.77$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c822.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.746883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8e…bf01backed No9c816.81$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No7c763.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.391,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f7…fee4backed No8c656.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No6c626.4$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.314766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No11c599.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No34c599.97$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.993132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No3c551.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.831676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa639…1b76backed No15c528.46$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabc…405ebacked Yes69c504.5$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked No17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852045%9 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+2,378.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes61c494.26$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.662638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No9c426.22$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8620328.6%58 W · 145 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No40c399.99$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15854934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked No18c388.55$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.745117.6%9 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d43…ac6dbacked No24c385.02$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed Yes79c369.99$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.131540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No32c367.18$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8357636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38fe…4707backed No19c362.82$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc8…19d4backed No23c334$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.29911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-70.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked No19c311.15$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.791540%6 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+195.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f6c…0603backed No19c310.63$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.02714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No14c308.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.414318.6%8 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.218628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x612f…f07dbacked No16c281.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde81…d44bbacked No25c262.84$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.811030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.53357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+58.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd7f…497abacked No8c241.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2633…67b1backed No17c235.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed Yes78c218.37$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f05…ef15backed No20c206.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed No29c190$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.692931%9 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No13c183.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.394641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed No22c157.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.92147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd110…cb4cbacked No42c155$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x246f…58aabacked No7c154.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b8…b8b4backed No19c150.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6902…f5febacked No13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes79c147.75$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.822766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x575e…5b86backed No14c144.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No15c127.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7417227.9%48 W · 124 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb5…6499backed No39c127$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7190…02d8backed No16c123.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202313%3 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbf…2bdebacked No16c123.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa646…0554backed No18c122.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f3…4b62backed No15c109.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21e5…f524backed No17c105.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa518…41e3backed No12c101$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7950…80e4backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4138023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.85328.3%15 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fd5…f4f1backed No41c99.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.99988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+37.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3835…7f72backed No21c95.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-52.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b0…cff5backed No15c95.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2276…3089backed No16c92.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.97955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa99a…6fd5backed No19c80.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No27c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.69659.4%57 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3696…c332backed Yes59c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fc…78a3backed Yes60c66.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked Yes79c63.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.679050%45 W · 45 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.85653.6%30 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No40c51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.47317.8%13 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed Yes72c51$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.077762.3%48 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed6…58b9backed Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick70cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe37c…1d68backed Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes77c42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.668861.4%54 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce6…ed7bbacked Yes61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes80c38.88$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9631443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes79c38.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82580%20 W · 5 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+38.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x33cb…d41bbacked Yes78c34.53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x632c…9c1ebacked Yes60c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4131…4030backed Yes61c24.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…67bcbacked Yes67c22.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.49771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x685f…99d7backed Yes78c21.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.46114.8%9 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.29328%26 W · 67 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.