Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x272e4714ca468e123349f2aceb8d5a683c187660a1b7a1ae28fbfd2ccd4ac2a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked No | 55c | 12,390$6,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,637.05 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 42c | 11,361$4,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,763.97 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 43c | 5,780$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.33 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 41c | 1,600$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.51 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 1,266$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.21 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked No | 56c | 998.17$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 43c | 998.04$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 29c | 834.43$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 758.77$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.83 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…fbcfbacked Yes | 26c | 685$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…8c87backed Yes | 21c | 658$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…13ccbacked No | 74c | 655$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 599.99$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 77c | 540.64$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.38 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 30c | 538.22$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.53 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 54c | 425.53$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 46c | 354.01$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 29c | 327$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…893abacked Yes | 26c | 315$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…6b51backed No | 74c | 305$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 72c | 294.9$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 71c | 226$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 62c | 220$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…04f3backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…fa19backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 41c | 166$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 143.24$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…da37backed No | 53c | 141.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d43…31a0backed No | 54c | 129.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70e…aa96backed Yes | 50c | 123.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…fb19backed Yes | 49c | 122.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 58c | 122.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 65c | 104.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 49c | 101.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 42c | 95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb9…cdf3backed Yes | 50c | 93.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 58c | 77.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7518…017bbacked No | 53c | 72.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…c4c1backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 22c | 66.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…1f26backed Yes | 39c | 62.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 59c | 42.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…5e93backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…a524backed No | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 75c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…bf6fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213f…c206backed No | 65c | 15.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…a4a8backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in July?this page
- Will a dozen eggs be above $4.75 in July?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be below $3.25 in July?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in July?Yes won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in July?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.50 in July?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.50-4.75 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.