Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7e2b4393e08fcf2012fc6e114eaf4d755dbaab0e4b4dc2d74eb5ed38e337e24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 15c | 5,450$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.19 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 31c | 3,375$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.26 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 21c | 2,195$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed No | 79c | 1,153$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.44 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 32c | 1,146$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…893abacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 11c | 830.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.57 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 29c | 815.07$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 807.8$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.17 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d2…7f19backed No | 68c | 650$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 30c | 589.15$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 69c | 555$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.05 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 74c | 519.13$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.52 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 66c | 422.53$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 410.56$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 69c | 400$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9206…8588backed Yes | 13c | 370.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6057…0ee0backed Yes | 32c | 300$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…3301backed No | 68c | 210$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 184.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…b933backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 30c | 132$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…c284backed Yes | 30c | 117.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 36c | 112.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 71c | 77.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 18c | 70.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053e…6422backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…cc14backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…839abacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…1843backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in July?this page
- Will a dozen eggs be above $4.75 in July?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be below $3.25 in July?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in July?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in July?Yes won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.50 in July?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.50-4.75 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.