Us Politics · resolved market
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92f5d3c973225f097d4ed6a3416fb4dd6e6b28f2a0eeef29971d37996ca14a5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bd8…4979backed No | 42c | 2,868$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 33c | 1,663$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.42 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 42c | 1,400$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.78 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 3c | 1,218$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 33c | 764.97$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.97 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 64c | 707.47$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.99 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 60c | 613.74$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 50c | 537.4$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.78 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 365.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 61c | 356.85$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 65c | 345.77$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.25 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 50c | 345$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 4c | 310.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 299.98$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 72c | 283.46$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…9b59backed No | 78c | 256.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes | 68c | 250$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 42c | 235.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed Yes | 46c | 217.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 51c | 212$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…acffbacked No | 40c | 198.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…23d8backed Yes | 67c | 185.77$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 74c | 168$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 44c | 160.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…993fbacked No | 53c | 151.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed Yes | 40c | 125.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 12c | 124.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 54c | 122.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…ed4ebacked No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 52c | 119.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f23…27cbbacked Yes | 35c | 115.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 20c | 113.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 95.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Yes | 67c | 95.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 94.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…521cbacked No | 60c | 92.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 62c | 77.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 69c | 64.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7471…d10dbacked No | 52c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 61.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked No | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…ad8bbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 39c | 47.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…7598backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 49c | 38.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 48c | 33.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…1211backed Yes | 44c | 25.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…6e9ebacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…362abacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…cc89backed Yes | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.