World Politics · resolved market
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election by less than 10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0cc959ffc989499299697feffb22aac6e975cd1fb0aee869ca57a58a4880092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Yes | 62c | 794.16$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.48 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed No | 29c | 260.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 76c | 96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 32c | 78.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…140abacked No | 29c | 75.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 71.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…2362backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775b…d38abacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election by less than 10%?this page
- Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election by between 10% and 20%?No won
- Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election by between 20% and 30%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.