Us Politics · resolved market
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94db11d2f3d7508ae36589e92cb30b3c9d1032aa4a3b23f33d4940913ed5e035
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,636,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,432,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,636,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 232,775$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.65 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 1c | 99,999$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487c…a4cdbacked Yes | 0c | 65,029$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…ffbbbacked Yes | 1c | 58,833$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…326bbacked Yes | 1c | 41,769$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…0724backed Yes | 3c | 34,539$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…533abacked Yes | 1c | 28,207$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…2393backed Yes | 2c | 27,297$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 5c | 26,667$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 1c | 23,999$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.74 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5947…630cbacked Yes | 1c | 17,755$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +370.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…7679backed Yes | 0c | 14,714$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e82…8d07backed Yes | 1c | 14,089$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 11,804$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.09 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 3c | 11,354$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.69 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 11,246$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 2c | 10,495$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.63 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…0e8dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 3c | 9,704$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.54 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf119…dd05backed Yes | 2c | 9,302$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…ac8fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,206$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…b195backed Yes | 2c | 8,715$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 0c | 7,750$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…e030backed Yes | 2c | 7,599$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,186$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.83 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e8…2867backed Yes | 3c | 6,912$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…1016backed Yes | 7c | 6,466$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…48fbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,950$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 5,771$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,334$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62f…9c75backed Yes | 7c | 5,286$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 6c | 5,265$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.9 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…1fa5backed Yes | 5c | 5,240$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf10…894dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bb…cca4backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0567…8b3bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,628$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5df…391fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,625$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 2c | 4,579$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…5b93backed Yes | 7c | 4,529$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,445$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4f…bb30backed Yes | 2c | 4,323$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…b244backed Yes | 1c | 4,209$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8b…87a4backed Yes | 1c | 4,060$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c4…2043backed Yes | 1c | 4,036$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Yes | 1c | 3,660$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbe…c8a3backed Yes | 2c | 3,524$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 5c | 3,454$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,443$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…79eebacked Yes | 1c | 3,363$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…cb66backed Yes | 6c | 3,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Yes | 5c | 3,200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…d709backed Yes | 1c | 3,120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed Yes | 6c | 3,072$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…35cfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,677$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a2…78f9backed Yes | 4c | 2,528$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1da…0894backed Yes | 3c | 2,469$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…f610backed Yes | 3c | 2,324$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde3f…98d9backed Yes | 7c | 2,262$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…161bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,091$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes | 7c | 2,077$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1876…2d3abacked Yes | 6c | 2,063$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,032$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…a355backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac8…d8b2backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 9c | 1,813$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…5935backed Yes | 2c | 1,805$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…49e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,773$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb751…99c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…063bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,423$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 1,418$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…f669backed Yes | 1c | 1,386$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcce…3e55backed Yes | 2c | 1,347$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1af…5611backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec35…cea9backed Yes | 8c | 1,247$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfa…1715backed Yes | 1c | 1,180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3997…e141backed Yes | 6c | 1,167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfb…7b61backed Yes | 9c | 1,150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…fc7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee5…9a51backed Yes | 3c | 1,121$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaefc…7ccabacked Yes | 7c | 1,083$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…0c55backed Yes | 1c | 1,076$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd6…296dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,062$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,061$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a37…b78fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,035$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8e7bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,017$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…e68fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,007$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…1cb0backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…1d52backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a9…ec57backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea1…65fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…3253backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.