TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

30% EU tariff in effect by August 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,700
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,880

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,700 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4fad…1480backed Yes0c5,528$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.083989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed No62c3,204$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.851656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes30c3,030$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.0110749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No65c2,000$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.5417850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes2c1,948$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9518516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes27c1,832$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.935756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes10c1,150$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.52847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes36c1,035$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.182313%3 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-82.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Yes35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3508355.4%46 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked No73c920.19$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed No64c823.29$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.123432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc01…7a9abacked Yes49c819.71$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes19c725.11$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.0799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes4c623.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8914624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed No79c614.4$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.62718.5%5 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-59.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…a061backed Yes35c540.22$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.48922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No75c453.73$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.485961%36 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes24c421.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…16bdbacked Yes29c420$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.582433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes33c389.45$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1610035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes16c388.39$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5719348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No77c377.51$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4316544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No59c356.06$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9721935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed No80c318.16$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.843652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked No66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.031353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785922%13 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7818445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes10c299.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2932626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c282.48$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2956733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes39c271.57$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.64946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes24c266$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3328320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No63c261$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes26c249.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6535519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcea5…c747backed No71c248.74$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes28c240.01$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.239522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked No78c240$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.15438.9%21 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No59c237.96$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.966955.1%38 W · 31 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes23c235$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.415238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed Yes19c225$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick28cpaid-82.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes15c211$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.671,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes25c206$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4414460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed No65c201.99$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.73348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7420446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9968…a104backed No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f8…0e43backed Yes25c199.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c175$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.371,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4213…a142backed Yes27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06d…3e0ebacked Yes35c149.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes22c138.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick21cpaid+170.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcebd…3769backed No62c135.34$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.761952.6%10 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-20.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d49…4f7cbacked Yes31c135.21$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd873…236dbacked Yes45c133.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-60.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed No74c132$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.762944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No72c129.81$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6337740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked No76c128.84$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+110.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No73c127.45$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0114230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a8f…717ebacked No74c127.45$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c126.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4796319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc35c…f668backed Yes30c114.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked No68c113$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.163330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes27c103.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ab5…1d6ebacked No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+46.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c1d…edf7backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick73cpaid-54.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc774…b6e8backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No62c99.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3812736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xcb25…d69abacked No70c95.24$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.57450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x027a…ea13backed No56c92$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff56…ca81backed No78c87.66$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.291735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes24c84.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+117.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78d7…1273backed Yes21c84.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdfb…c05cbacked No74c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3629…ff86backed Yes30c73.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64f8…8cadbacked No73c72.78$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes34c71.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3612839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dbc…7610backed Yes38c68.4$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1250%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf200…045ebacked No75c66.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe05f…8c92backed No66c63.57$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ca…e238backed No64c62.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4347…cb81backed Yes30c61.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.59714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x503b…8d23backed No69c60.54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…c640backed Yes34c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16a…3c93backed Yes35c58.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.493740.5%15 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20c6…a830backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x467c…b348backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-82.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144914.3%7 W · 42 L-6.7wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-54.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x469b…5182backed Yes27c44.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes27c43.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.64922.4%11 W · 38 L-7.7wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-56.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.44839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1e…f6c8backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.25100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+111.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x165a…3975backed No55c38.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.39757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No66c38.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.935149%25 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e24…e081backed No66c36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6a…2ebdbacked No55c33.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c4…46d0backed No61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddbb…32afbacked No61c30.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.751030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6311…842fbacked No73c30.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+69.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.