Champions League · resolved market
Will Palmeiras vs. Chelsea end in a draw after regulation time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f338ec533bade8f1a5ae2bff6821744955298ed7f46a23edf507ee6d21506e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Yes | 16c | 1,607$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.95 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6227…18dabacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 22c | 459.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 18c | 444.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 56c | 416.28$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.65 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…b4d9backed Yes | 55c | 331$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.05 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 72c | 265.22$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9641…ac5abacked Yes | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 67c | 230$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 28c | 163.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 72c | 157.06$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 72c | 135.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f08…b729backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…893abacked Yes | 28c | 128.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 78c | 122.57$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 28c | 77.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…c308backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…e866backed Yes | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +305.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…5e67backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palmeiras vs. Chelsea end in a draw after regulation time?this page
- Will Chelsea beat Palmeiras in regulation time?Yes won
- Will Palmeiras beat Chelsea in regulation time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.