Commodities · resolved market
Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57f95d9e6f66d3afd53bc6a1b09c4c1fae75586e474db7042574d052e16cd9b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,165 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 7c | 2,561$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.71 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,540$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 6c | 1,381$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…e3e9backed Yes | 5c | 1,322$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…b8fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,303$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…cc9cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,283$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47df…2778backed Yes | 8c | 1,273$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,016$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 4c | 977.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 918.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 853.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…366bbacked Yes | 9c | 790.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…9097backed Yes | 5c | 699.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 4c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 7c | 538.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…3075backed Yes | 10c | 499.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Yes | 5c | 465.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 5c | 434.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b07abacked Yes | 7c | 427.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b91…fb9dbacked Yes | 5c | 426.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…79abbacked Yes | 6c | 407.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…57e1backed Yes | 11c | 367.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 4c | 356.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5708…c766backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…cc01backed Yes | 7c | 291.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 4c | 261$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 9c | 249.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…7ab8backed Yes | 8c | 248.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 239.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…cb1fbacked Yes | 9c | 233.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -90%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 12c | 220$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 209.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a19…8f5bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…7e79backed Yes | 7c | 172.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…7191backed Yes | 12c | 166.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc062…cc13backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6c…6ed0backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…df85backed Yes | 7c | 142.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc477…7c48backed Yes | 12c | 93.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…b1aabacked Yes | 19c | 75.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?this page
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Yes won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.