TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Trail Blazers (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jazzof Trail Blazers, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$915,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $915,822 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Jazz49c577,629$282,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295,330.631,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a0…9a09backed Trail Blazers51c256,586$130,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130,680.883560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Trail Blazers52c200,000$104,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104,00048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Trail Blazers51c194,000$98,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,94043148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Jazz49c73,693$36,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,442.731,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Trail Blazers50c69,000$34,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,50011457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Trail Blazers52c26,981$14,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,030.072,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Jazz49c25,777$12,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,201.2159347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Jazz49c20,816$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,616.3316640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Jazz48c18,888$9,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,821.7615952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Jazz48c15,811$7,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,221.727240.3%29 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Jazz49c15,230$7,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,767.2852460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz49c12,244$5,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,247.569,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Jazz47c11,615$5,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,155.7629245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Jazz49c11,020$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,620.4148546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Trail Blazers50c8,608$4,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30423147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Jazz48c8,185$3,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,256.4220948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Trail Blazers50c8,144$4,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,040.361,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Jazz49c8,000$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,08029650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Trail Blazers52c7,351$3,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,822.4387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad84…1f2bbacked Jazz49c5,940$2,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,029.4966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Trail Blazers50c5,610$2,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80518349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Trail Blazers53c4,245$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25020945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Trail Blazers50c4,114$2,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05726949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Jazz49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.638154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Trail Blazers53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Jazz51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9601,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Trail Blazers50c3,957$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.525049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Trail Blazers50c3,808$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90470246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x252a…ae9fbacked Trail Blazers50c3,601$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Jazz49c3,260$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.124,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Jazz55c3,154$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.952,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Jazz48c2,973$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.962,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb614…4be4backed Trail Blazers49c2,766$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.34450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Jazz49c2,708$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.0831643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Jazz49c2,587$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.2330446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1c…a6c5backed Trail Blazers50c2,538$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2695046%23 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Jazz51c2,523$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.614,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f4…c48fbacked Trail Blazers50c2,328$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1645147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8715…d6b6backed Trail Blazers49c2,286$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a57…2011backed Jazz53c2,277$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Jazz48c2,115$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.81,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8861…4c2ebacked Jazz49c2,043$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.353860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Trail Blazers50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa583…2928backed Trail Blazers53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002737%10 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Trail Blazers50c1,832$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91638946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Trail Blazers51c1,521$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.422,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz54c1,332$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.358,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4883…c1a6backed Jazz51c1,324$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.76450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers51c1,292$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.871,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz49c1,231$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.723,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Trail Blazers53c1,200$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63613339.1%52 W · 81 L-11.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Jazz53c1,169$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.92,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Jazz48c1,167$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.832,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Jazz48c1,145$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.043,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Trail Blazers53c1,133$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.492,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Jazz49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Trail Blazers52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52076250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Trail Blazers50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Trail Blazers52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52043544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Trail Blazers48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Jazz49c877.55$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.5581349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jazz69c868.4$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.432,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Jazz49c800$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40850239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Trail Blazers32c774.29$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.1522140.7%90 W · 131 L+0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ef…3cd6backed Jazz51c753$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.974100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4730…a4c2backed Jazz51c689$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.61450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Jazz53c678.49$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.23,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Jazz49c612$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.121,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Trail Blazers52c577$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.0421045.2%95 W · 115 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Trail Blazers52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Trail Blazers52c576$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5210448.1%50 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9030…cf12backed Trail Blazers52c576$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5212046.7%56 W · 64 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Jazz63c550.82$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.0928929.4%85 W · 204 L-13.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Jazz51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2456333.3%21 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Jazz51c482.18$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.2251438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Jazz50c446.6$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.38148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Trail Blazers51c431.44$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.032,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked Trail Blazers48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008450%42 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f51…7b9ebacked Trail Blazers36c410.47$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6710835.2%38 W · 70 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Jazz49c410$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.128448.2%137 W · 147 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jazz49c406.61$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.372,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e2…5ec0backed Jazz49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2046253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Jazz68c392.63$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.242,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab9f…3b3cbacked Jazz49c386$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.865756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Trail Blazers39c384.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15059140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Jazz49c350$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.523047%108 W · 122 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Jazz52c313.87$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8723446.2%108 W · 126 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Trail Blazers52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15653945.3%244 W · 295 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Jazz48c300$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1551,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Trail Blazers52c280.49$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8521137.9%80 W · 131 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Jazz52c248$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.041,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1779…eef2backed Trail Blazers44c241.1$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8910936.7%40 W · 69 L+0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Trail Blazers26c236.67$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.171,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e6…24e6backed Trail Blazers52c221.23$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.049841.8%41 W · 57 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48aa…2eeebacked Trail Blazers52c216.21$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.439441.5%39 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…2d2dbacked Trail Blazers50c215.2$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Jazz49c210.29$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7866046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x101c…7df8backed Trail Blazers52c210$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.28644.2%38 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec5…257ebacked Jazz75c207$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.22860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.