NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5bf92b4f49d607bab3ee9c68c5e2490c23502a6bcff48662c53f3d9ed0a4cd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Trail Blazers, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,789 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5b7…7ffabacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 11,345$6,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,200 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Jazz | 46c | 7,782$3,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,172.83 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked Jazz | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 3,962$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Jazz | 57c | 3,738$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.37 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Jazz | 44c | 3,558$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.3 | 292 | 45.5%133 W · 159 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz | 47c | 3,543$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.79 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…976abacked Trail Blazers | 62c | 2,736$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 209 | 63.2%132 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 1,767$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 1,690$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.02 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6292…d254backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 1,507$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.79 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Trail Blazers | 41c | 1,496$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.08 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz | 46c | 968.32$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.06 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 929.38$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Jazz | 12c | 562.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.2 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 490$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.1 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…2987backed Jazz | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Jazz | 48c | 392.76$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.95 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jazz | 67c | 352.25$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Jazz | 61c | 325.53$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Jazz | 59c | 266.95$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Jazz | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.32 | 234 | 46.2%108 W · 126 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 239.29$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Trail Blazers | 41c | 239.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Jazz | 49c | 238.75$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Trail Blazers | 36c | 208.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d19…296ebacked Jazz | 55c | 203.45$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Jazz | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Jazz | 57c | 150.78$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Jazz | 52c | 135$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Jazz | 47c | 114.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 113.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +9.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 80.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b5…ae57backed Jazz | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 295 | 56.6%167 W · 128 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 75.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Jazz | 47c | 72.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…d84fbacked Jazz | 48c | 58.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…e9f2backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Jazz | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…328ebacked Jazz | 51c | 44.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 44.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 46c | 42.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Jazz | 54c | 40.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…4e43backed Jazz | 49c | 34.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 33.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…664cbacked Jazz | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Jazz | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Jazz | 44c | 30.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Jazz | 46c | 24.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Jazz | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…cbb9backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Jazz | 58c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…be21backed Jazz | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5)this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Brice Sensabaugh: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Cody Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Donovan Clingan: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Jazz vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Jazz vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Robert Williams III: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-12.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-15.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.