TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$142,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,893 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes6c5,783$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.0323839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f2…a5a6backed Yes11c4,683$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c3,982$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.492217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes7c3,544$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.3242818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c3,231$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.854769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e00…b8c9backed Yes4c3,042$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1191910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0c…7899backed Yes11c2,781$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.31258%2 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes2c2,758$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5914420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes2c2,480$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.31623.2%2 W · 60 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes11c2,207$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.94230%0 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a08…b114backed Yes4c2,162$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.22616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c2,111$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.267135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes42c1,942$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.0947334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c8…f51abacked Yes30c1,942$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.921241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No59c1,900$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.193847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fac…4723backed Yes5c1,842$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.02911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c1,812$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.324625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes26c1,728$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.5321926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,679$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.293588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes4c1,480$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.241612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid+14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,473$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.431,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes6c1,404$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1256336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes6c1,352$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.32476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes7c1,350$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.621430.7%1 W · 142 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-92.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed No65c1,344$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.915147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c1,311$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.624195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes5c1,270$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60392.6%1 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick12cpaid-96.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes6c1,210$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.41442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No68c1,190$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.1229653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x446e…0dbcbacked No66c1,113$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.221181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.32per pick50cpaid+65.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8c3e…a3a4backed Yes4c1,102$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes14c1,100$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.59532.6%31 W · 64 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes38c1,056$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.896549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes1c1,046$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5123420.9%49 W · 185 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa2d…aeb9backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001625%4 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90f…d5bfbacked Yes51c999.98$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.99366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes40c933.53$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.4136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes5c909.42$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.331477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x173e…2d86backed Yes7c874.63$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57488.3%4 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8308…ca4bbacked No60c829.99$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3321346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…0b29backed No49c819.81$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.813070%21 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes2c784.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5820617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ece…9cf0backed Yes3c779.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes8c770.38$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.63836%5 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed Yes7c712.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47647.8%5 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd4…a976backed Yes7c682.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd205…d642backed Yes5c657.36$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1652…a501backed Yes14c649.98$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes2c648.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed No70c638.14$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.444663%29 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+63.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c603.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3436626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes14c572.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.223215.6%5 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes47c547.93$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8913342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01ea…ffbabacked Yes2c541.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13348.8%3 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid+46.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes40c531.79$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.1626138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6aeb…0c42backed Yes3c524.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No59c509.23$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.981855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cbe…25bcbacked Yes3c505.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2da4…bb27backed Yes4c500.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.53917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c493.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.272384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No68c479.65$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.066540%26 W · 39 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-31.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe313…1c9bbacked Yes6c469.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3090%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No71c450$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.54445.5%20 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c447.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.784136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes4c438.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9313321.8%29 W · 104 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No56c430.37$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.8734143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcae1…119bbacked Yes71c423.84$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe08f…f991backed Yes6c415.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2580%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1be…1613backed No57c408.46$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74de…78c8backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes23c400$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0282…d571backed Yes5c399.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.792213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-61.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes5c390.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.03694.3%3 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes7c380.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5158927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed No68c362.59$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.051560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb01…097cbacked No57c348.26$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc92f…eb24backed Yes58c344.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4502…2f4dbacked Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1892…a40cbacked No56c320$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe463…df75backed Yes44c320$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe52a…43abbacked Yes44c310$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd89c…0377backed No56c310$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243060%18 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x989f…0af2backed Yes29c300$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes45c288.88$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13034234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ff…e187backed Yes8c267.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.162934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94dd…7b9ebacked Yes40c252.5$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No56c251.98$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8720749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5b…4ef4backed No78c251.66$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.131752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick67cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8535…b75cbacked Yes8c250.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked No60c248.37$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.373354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes6c239$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.241650%8 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+33.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72a8…c016backed Yes11c237.46$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.673641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cf5…365abacked Yes9c233.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes31c232.61$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.410244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No64c224.45$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.542744.4%12 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79ce…fda8backed Yes9c221.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907e…8a7cbacked Yes12c220.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.572030%6 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a01…fee6backed Yes7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15120%0 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.