Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fa3087d37909f6702c6bd2b6c84972ba334c0839189a5ad946b2d535dbce08f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.9 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 400.4$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.27 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 45c | 334.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 44c | 284.55$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.55 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 51c | 267$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 196.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 52c | 193.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 30c | 192.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 53c | 160$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 78c | 114.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 46c | 100.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 56c | 100.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 56c | 99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 48c | 99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 84.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 71.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 49c | 69.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…9a08backed No | 53c | 67.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e5…e017backed No | 56c | 64.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 56c | 59.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 31c | 58.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed No | 57c | 57.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed No | 57c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 48c | 48.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 48.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked No | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fd…fd0cbacked No | 51c | 32.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked No | 55c | 28.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 55c | 23.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed0a…708cbacked Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 76c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a95…2d3ebacked Yes | 73c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 10?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.