Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72cd9f6cfa01f04f095913ac01c58cec130a3c6c5492fdb3964163121de10759
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,470 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,968$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 69c | 177.13$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked No | 79c | 169.51$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 144.72$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 44c | 134.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 41c | 116.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 30c | 116$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 60c | 97.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 78c | 82.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 52c | 70.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 52c | 69.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c824backed No | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…bddcbacked Yes | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes | 48c | 62.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af8…b069backed Yes | 49c | 61.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 25c | 48.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 38c | 46.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 79c | 42.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 25c | 42.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 130 | 31.5%41 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…5a81backed No | 33c | 40.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e43…b356backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 178 | 18.5%33 W · 145 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…e673backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 39.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 58c | 34.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 30.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +13.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 28.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 58c | 25.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…1f01backed Yes | 67c | 25.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.