Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8819555bc0990f50e6892d0b80668aeabd5e4bac7fd6a8f0d132b6042b533742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 62c | 3,980$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.63 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 2c | 1,361$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 38c | 1,216$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 945.02$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.29 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 817.76$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 36c | 591.25$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 53c | 566.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.48 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 21c | 533.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 32c | 485.7$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 23c | 481.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 40c | 463$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 57c | 400$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.49 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…4a4bbacked No | 37c | 365.51$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 352.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 342.66$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 40c | 308$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 66c | 304.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 24c | 302.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 22c | 288.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 26c | 266.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 34c | 250$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 34c | 230.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 41c | 230$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 64c | 191.75$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 44c | 183.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 179.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 57c | 127.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 39c | 105.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 10c | 97.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed No | 38c | 94.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 55c | 91.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 87.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked No | 41c | 87.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 85.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 36c | 81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b84…16eebacked No | 36c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed No | 41c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 80c | 76.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 36c | 74.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 46c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 48c | 68.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed No | 38c | 68.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 22c | 66.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 47c | 66.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 58c | 60.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 24c | 57.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 24c | 56.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 51c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 23c | 51.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 39c | 51.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 26c | 50.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 31c | 50.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 31c | 48.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 40c | 46.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 45.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7d…9cfbbacked No | 41c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked No | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 54c | 40.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 28c | 40.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 26c | 39.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 43c | 38.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 57c | 36.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 53c | 32.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked No | 51c | 30.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…bac6backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 80c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 80c | 16.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C or higher on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.