Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix dip to $70 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0bfadfab75dc1ef042006e9bc4e90808eb8b943385d15017b3a1102f10e8d4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 9c | 10,437$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.69 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 7c | 5,460$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 11c | 5,096$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.58 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 14c | 3,512$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.83 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 15c | 2,431$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.32 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,530$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed Yes | 20c | 1,506$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked Yes | 8c | 1,422$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,226$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.14 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,211$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…a292backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 18c | 888.08$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.55 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 7c | 877.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 3c | 850$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 24c | 848$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.63 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39f3…0e56backed Yes | 16c | 800$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 78c | 730.02$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.39 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…80d2backed Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…2dadbacked Yes | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…2bf0backed Yes | 15c | 645.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 21c | 630$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 23c | 610.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 17c | 577.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed Yes | 2c | 560$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…c5afbacked Yes | 17c | 478.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 20c | 415$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 13c | 391.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 5c | 290.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…e28dbacked Yes | 15c | 273.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4085…583fbacked Yes | 20c | 260$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…99cfbacked Yes | 10c | 249.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked Yes | 14c | 218.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c2…f0a4backed No | 78c | 194.14$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f72cbacked Yes | 8c | 181.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…16d9backed Yes | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 152$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0de…fc0dbacked Yes | 20c | 128$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +198.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes | 12c | 122.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233f…405ebacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5d…1726backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…40c2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…e455backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…5d14backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 98.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 169 | 49.1%83 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…584fbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8317…18e3backed Yes | 22c | 93.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9c…c878backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 16c | 74.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix dip to $70 in February?this page
- Will Netflix reach $140 in February?No won
- Will Netflix reach $368 in February?No won
- Will Netflix reach $455 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.