NFL · resolved market
Will the Bengals beat the Commanders by 8 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc941493b797b0bb841e6d07d6f7e9c4bdcb2be10f55052a4d2d00656d4986391
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Bengals, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b9e…74aebacked Bengals | 49c | 46,105$22,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,481.08 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Commanders | 51c | 37,414$19,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,228.72 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Commanders | 52c | 21,657$11,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,395.3 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e80…59e8backed Bengals | 48c | 21,438$10,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,290 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Commanders | 72c | 7,829$5,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.9 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Commanders | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…5e93backed Bengals | 5c | 4,319$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Commanders | 51c | 3,001$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.25 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…2a6dbacked Bengals | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…1b7bbacked Commanders | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Bengals | 4c | 1,551$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 118 | 21.2%25 W · 93 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6899…8f0fbacked Bengals | 15c | 1,327$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…05f6backed Bengals | 5c | 1,071$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Bengals | 49c | 860.51$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Bengals | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Commanders | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Bengals | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Commanders | 52c | 400$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Commanders | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Commanders | 54c | 332.05$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked Bengals | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Commanders | 51c | 253.62$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.27 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Bengals | 49c | 219.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c17…9719backed Commanders | 51c | 204.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Commanders | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked Commanders | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Commanders | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Commanders | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd85f…e795backed Bengals | 48c | 198.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.32per pick | 38cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Commanders | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbc…2565backed Commanders | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Commanders | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Bengals | 14c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Commanders | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Bengals | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Commanders | 60c | 99.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Commanders | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…37adbacked Commanders | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…664dbacked Bengals | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Commanders | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Commanders | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Bengals | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdad0…dd38backed Commanders | 53c | 47.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…6181backed Commanders | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bengals beat the Commanders by 8 or more points?this page
- Will the Bengals and Commanders combine for 47 or more points?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.